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It no longer feels like an if...
Itยดs just a matter of when....
It already happened in many places
The thing is that this when BTC ATH does matter, and it matters a lot it seems. Because if the when is pre-halving this cycle might run very differently than when the when happens post-halving.
Or at least that is what I have been getting from multiple sources.
And that is what worries me.
I messed up last time not trusting in the cycle, and believing that this time we would get an extended. So when people start talking about not following the cycle and possibly a super cycle I get itches.
They can sell the story very well and last time I bought it and expected it to go down to 44K and then up to 100K because of the extended cycle. Now I am not making that mistake again I trust in the cycle.
And if we dontยดt get a BTC ATH pre-halving this cycle is expected to play out as any cycle.
These guys saying this are probably because their TA and knowledge is greater and better than my Baby brain can comprehend. I like to keep it simple, and from the keep it simple perspective we never broke ATH Pre-Halving.
Previously it took at least 100 days after the halving to reach ATH and we would be at least 20% below ATH.
Right now after touching 64K, we would be 3K from the ATH, Calculater says we are only 5% from ATH and have at least 7 weeks to go according to this Calendar.
This is crypto, and that does not mean we are going higher but looking at the ETF in and outflows and the recent ATH in daily inflows it feels that this current force driving the pump will not slow down significantly over those 7 weeks.
Wen Pullback
I think the previous 20% pullback was the big pre-halving pullback. Not saying we will not go back to 50K pre-halving but we are in the pre-halving rally period, so any dump will be bought up quickly.
I expect the next big dump not to happen till June as I said in my previous article:
Is it Too Late To Buy (More) Crypto or Sell in May & Go Away
Once everyone sold in May and goes away and the ETH ETF is rejected or proven to be a sell-the-news event (temporarily) that is when I expect the dump.
But this post was not about Wen Dump.
Wen BTC ATH
If the ATH does not happen pre-halving post-halving which seems very unlikely at the moment I think it will come pretty soon. Like within a month and fueled by the ETH ETF or a supply crunch if the BTC ETF keeps snacking on spot BTC as it has been doing recently.
Even if that is a bit early the cycle would still follow the standard trajectory this run. The big what-if is when we break ATH in the next 6 weeks. What would that mean for the cycle?
Personal Opinion
After my greedy belief in an extended cycle, my personal opinion does not matter much, but I believe that whatever happens there is no such thing as an extended, or super cycle. In the Cycle I trust.
But these guys that are wiser with me keep telling me to not be such a baby and listen to the left blah blah cycle they foresee when ATH is crushed prior to the halving.
If we break 64K and stay above for a day within the next 2 weeks I foresee the ATH breaking pre-halving.
The left translated cycle
Or the bla-blah cycle as I like to call it, As it means nothing else than on a chart things move to the left e.g. the ATH was to the right of the halving on a chart it moves more to the left. Everything happens earlier.....
And when I write everything I mean everything. basically, your 500-day bull run is reduced to 300 days. If this plays out.
I was pretty certain that we would not cross 150K BTC this run and similarly, as I don't believe this is a super cycle, I think that is still spot on.
But as I don't want to F it up again I am preparing for the fact that this might be a left-translated super cycle.
I mean while writing this little post BTC moved from 57K to 60K and even touched 64K. And those 100 days were the minimum to reach ATH after the halving. If because of the cocktail of ETF and halving the timeline shifts to the left a lot faster than expected, the silly season in which everything will go parabolic will shift even faster.
Just look at the Top 100 weekly gains:
These numbers are here way too early, like I have been saying before retail has not come in yet.
They will jump on the hype train this summer for sure because ETF inflows and breaking the BTC ATH will trigger the suckers to FOMO in and be our exit liquidity (don't tell them please).
Institutions are buying #ETF, no look at when the public starts buying!
Last Time they came back was around Jan 2021 and BTC topped out in November of the same year, alts did the same in December, and from 2022 things turned sour.
Hence a year after ATH and less than a year since retail joined, now those are the metrics to keep in mind. Or at least the ones I am watching.
Are you prepared to go parabo?
Now I talked a lot about preparing myself well this time and I did.
I got into the narratives I liked.
I swapped my old bags for new bags as they tend to run faster.
I set my sell orders to ensure I am selling on the way up.
I am checking, planning, and adjusting my timelines to ensure I get out on time this time.
I am not calculating on any greedy alteration to the cycle, no super or extended cycle.
I am not planning to buy back in too early as I did last time.
Bikini Bottom Line
I learned plenty of lessons but the most expensive one was me counting on another pump in 2022. That extended cycle, back to 40K in March 2022 and up to 100K by the end of May. I sold the lot in Dec 2021 but started buying back in at March when BTC was around 40K.
Now I should have listened and DYOR into the cycles and seen that 80% drop sign on the wall. But greedy me wanted to make a bit more, especially in alts. What a mistake that was, those alts lost another 80% in value and so did my 2021 profit.
Not this time, this time I will move my funds into a safe place and maybe some stocks and options. And I will wait, wait for the bears, thank the bears, buy what's left after the bears leave. But I will not expect the next run to come even close to this one.
We will run, mass adoption will happen and that might drive the last cycle where we can make big bucks, but I am trading this one as if it was the last one....if we get one more it's a bonus.
My goal is with my <10K investment to end up with a 100K investment paying 23% taxes over 80K profit and end up with 60K in gold, real estate, and stocks. While I hold another 20K in BTC.
Is that doable?
According to the plan it is, it's 4X from where I am now, and as I said ATH & Retail are still coming. And if not, being in crypto is the best hobby ever anyway.
Narratives Posts
What Am I buying (Pre- Halving) & More Important Why
What Narratives I Am Buying Pre Halving & Why
Thank goodness you made it till the end Pees, Love and I am out of here!
[Source Pic](All pics by MYI & AI unless watermarked or mentioned)
We might see $70k before halving and I sincerely hope it happens and that the altcoins follow suit. I will continue to HODL as much as possible. Thanks for sharing and have a great day.
Well I have no doubt we break the ATH before halving looking at how things are going atm but it will make it a very short and aggressive cycle if the experts are correct.
I guess the trouble with hitting the ATH pre-halving is that we could peak much earlier like you said and have an extended bear market. Although, in the last cycle we hit 67k without institutions, so I think a pretty big ATH is on the cards, I just wonder if we will see supply shock this cycle or not.
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Supply shock is what is driving the current price, there is no more over-the-counter BTC so the buys are now spot market buys but be ready to have an aggressive short run this time, as long as we prep it will make us some nice profits. Thanks for the pick!
Hard to think OTC bags are empty!
Uhu now I have it from hear say I did not see the data (did not look for it either) but it was to be expected to happen in March last time I calculated and it has been going hard with those ETFs I think buys are 10X to what is mined
Happy Days are here again!
It was about time but seems like Christmas is coming early this year, although I don't expect altszn before end of summer
proof is here as well lowest point in 5 years
That's insane, they need to start stacking lol
I got left holding the bag last time waiting for $100K to happen like everyone was talking about. I don't plan on that happening again. I know we are still really early in all of this though, so I can't say I am going to be selling anything in the next couple of months. Not yet anyway.
Not saying you need to sell now, just keep an eye out as the way things are going we might top out end of 2024 or q1 2025, just don't be a bagholder again this time around
@edicted wrote a really good post the other day talking about how this could be a Volcano. I'm going to keep an eye on things over the next three weeks and see where it goes.
Indeed although I dont think it will be weeks but it could be parabolic before you know it
The hike in price is really crazy
It is possible to get to $70k even before the halving
Very possible indeed based on the current market and retail waking up, but be prepared if it happens early this bull run will be shorter