Has the bubble popped on crypto? Are is this one massive correction?

Hello, SPIer's. What a day it's been for the crypto markets it has been. It seems to be a running theme for the past week where every time I go to bed I wake up and the markets are down 5-20%. Im cool as a cucumber as I'm hopeful still that this bull market is not over but now I'm sounding like an amateur that's over HODLed.

As said, I dont think this bullrun is over just yet. There are a few things that happen around the end of the bullrun and we're still waiting on them. With that said, a few of those things that should happen have happened so it's hard to tell. Looking at BTC, it's down 48% from its all-time high. It never corrected by this amount in 2017 so this is an alarm. In 2013 it corrected by almost 70% before going on an epic run but in 2013 the total market cap was much smaller and x10-30 required way less money so this brings little comfort to us today but worth noting all the same.

Toward the end of a bullrun when FOMO and hype are at their peak, we see the most amount of money being invested as the last pump to the top is always the most aggressive. This is when people are using their credit cards, taking get loans and building debt against their homes to get invested in crypto. That might sound silly to you as a crypto person but we all remember reading the stories in 2018 where people had lost life savings and homes.

The most gains are to made at the end of the bullrun. If you look at 2017, you can see that the rest of the year looks flat until December when the price exploded from $5.8k to $19.6k in the 5 weeks between the middle of November and the middle of December. This has not happened for BTC yet this bullrun, the best run in this bullrun so far has been a 2x from $20k to $40k in 3 weeks between December and January.

The chart below shows what happened toward the end of the 2017 bullrun and this is the signal i will be looking for. When BTC doubles up are more in under 2 weeks, the game is almost over.

When I see BTC tanking as it has been the past few days, this chart gives me faith that we are strong hands and not over HODLer's. As newbies pump in the last of their money, the price could 1.5-2x very quickly and there'll be a certain feeling in the crypto world that's it's going to last forever and it's unstoppable. We've not had that yet so when I see this happening and greed is at it's peak, it's time to move funds to the exchange. You can see that I have marked out sell because I think this is where I would sell. After pumping for almost 2 weeks, this dip would be a 15-20% red day and signal that BTC is going into a correction. Time to get out and count profits.

After the "sell", BTC rebounded to hit almost $20k before the switching between bull and bear started. I have no desire to try and time to top, that's not possible and for all we know, $65k last month was the top. All I know is the biggest gains and pumps happen toward the end, so when we see BTC 2x in under 2 weeks, that's a signal to start paying a lot of attention on BTC and get ready to do something. Hypothetically, if we sell at $200k and it goes to $300k, we still 20x our investment and it's hard to lose playing the game like that never mind the extra 50% would have made by hitting the top. Im a great believer in market cycles repeating, maybe less aggressively each time with a greater time between each but in general, a lot of things repeat.

In general, the day to day FUD does not get to me as I try to think for long periods of time but the past few days have been trying. Tomorrow's earnings report will be an interesting one as it's the first of SPinvest 2nd year on HIVE and I'm pretty sure the fund value has declined but tens of thousands of dollars over the past week so watch out for that tomorrow.

Apart from all the above, it's been a hard week for many as we watch our wallets and blockfolio apps decline in value overnight every night. I feel your pain and we all go through it together. If the top has already come in, that's the way it is but I still have faith the this is just a huge correction and in a few months, we are laughing about this. The sweat we are experiencing now will make the reward all that much sweeter when we see BTC hit 6 figures.

Small disclaimer. Not financial advice. These are my views only (SSUK)

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