Is Bitcoins fate to be a manipulated traded paper market?

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(Edited)

Something that has been playing on my mind for a while. We all know that there is a max of 21 million bitcoin can be minted. We know roughly 18.5 million can be minted, 3-4 million BTC move around the system being old and sold, almost half the Bitcoin in circulation has not moved in over a year and a few million Bitcoin are gone forever from people losing access to wallets. They say Satoshi's wallet has over 1.1 million in it and the fact that nobody has be able to hack into it for over a decade goes to show how secure Bitcoin is.

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Anyways, to what I have been thinking about. As an avid precious metals stacker for almost a decade I am aware of the amount of precious's out there. It's a limited number and just like Bitcoin, it's mined into existence in smaller numbers each year. We all seen recently how the wall street Reddit traders pushed silver for a day are 2 and almost every bullion dealer in the country went out of stock within hours. This shows just how little physical silver is available to retail investors. So you might be thinking, if all the bullion dealers were sold out, were where people buy silver from?

They were buying paper silver, a piece of paper that says it represents real silver. In fact, there is as much as 250 times more paper silver in existence compared to real physical silver. This means for every 1oz of physical silver there are 250 oz's of paper silver worth nothing. It's getting so bad now that the paper silver market (SLV) and physical silver (Ag) price is starting to separate. The market cap of all physical silver is roughly $20-25 billion and the paper marketcap is worth around $5 trillion. I could report the gold numbers but they are too big to comprehend.

This is what happens when bankers write regulations and they control the money supply. They turned gold and silver which has been used for thousands of yers as money into something with almost no value. I understand silver and gold are having a good year but they are both desperately undervalued. Think what would happen to the price of precious metals if the paper markets were to go bust? Gold would be $10k+ and silver would easily be over $500 an oz.

To the point of my post

Who says they dont the same with BTC?

Might not happen for 10-20 years but someone someday from the banking industry will try to create paper markets for crypto. They'll start off with a 1-1 backing, move to 2-1 after a few years and boom, 10 years down line, paper BTC is being sold at a leverage of 50-1. It might already be happening, i've not researched it out of fear. It's like when you have a weird spot on your body that will not go away and you dont wonna google search to see what it could be because you know that 90% of the results will say its cancer. lol.

Does it not seem strange that none of the big banks have not tried to stop BTC? I mean a few years ago they could have bought the whole supply for less the big fines they get for money laundering. Even now with a market cap of $900 billion, it's not too much compared to assets held by world banks.

You might be thinking, people will hold their BTC and not sell it, they can not manipulate the market as it's decentralized and controlled by miners. They dont need your BTC, remember the BTC they sell are trade is paper. They did it with gold and silver, the 7th and 10th largest trading communities on the planet. They turn on the money presses, pump the price, get people to sell it to them and then cut the money, the price drops and they leverage it out at 100 to 1. Genius :)

Its a long term fear but i fear that when BTC gets regulated, it'll be traded in paper form same as precious metals are today. There could be 1 billion BTC in circulation in 30 years from now. 18 million real BTC and 980 billion fake paper bitcoin that people think is real BTC. Let me rephrase, 18 million real Bitcoin and 980 million BTC pushing downing the price of the 18 million real bitcoin. Bitcoin might hit $1 million each 1 day and 20 years later it could completely ubiquitous and trading for $20k each if funds/banks are allowed to create leveraged paper contacts.

Why create paper markets?

CONTROL!!!

(The multiplication of those financial markets will reduce investors’ demand from the real physical market, thus creating a virtual market supply without putting any pressure on the physical/tangible market supply. A roundabout way of keeping the price low.)

Why keep the price low?

CONTROL!!

They keep it cheap for 2 reasons.

1/ It's cheaper for them to buy physical precious metals and keep it for themselves. Storytime - In 1933, the US government made it law for US citizens to sell all their gold to the government. They paid people $20 an oz and then 1 year later wrote the "gold reserver act" that valued gold at $35. Boom, instant 75% profit for the government and the people had no gold. Im sure some HODL'd through this, true HODL'ers :) You have your freedom until the government threatens your freedom and gives you the choice of looking at 4 walls for 40 years are doing, as they say, surrender your rights and give them your stuff.

2/ If the precious metals paper markets were to suddenly crash and all default for whatever reason right now. I'd wake up a millionaire. I dont think bankers are governments would like to see millions of new millionaires as they would debase their currencies at faster rates. They can keep us poor by making us feel rich if that makes sense.

Anyways, what do you think? This is not something I think will happen for many years but its long term fear and falls into the same category as what happens to BTC and other blockchains when quantum computers are released. Yes, I understand when quantum computers are released, code, wallets etc can be updated to quantum but there will still be millions of BTC worth tens of billions in lost wallets on non-quantum computers that will become easy pickings if connected to the internet. Millions of Bitcoin could crash the market of dumped. But again, something not to worry about for many years.

Let me know what you think if you think this could happen are if im being paranoid.

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I think it is possible if they work together. If they act as individual entities, then no they will not be able to. Prices go up when sellers overpower buyers (supply greater than demand) and vice-versa.

Which means, they need enough BTC to completely overpower retail and any opposing institution. If there is no-one buying at the lower levels, they could collaborate and sell/buy from each other to drop the prices to an acceptable level. The biggest problem they have is that BTC has a limited supply and it is also transparent. When they smash prices in the metals market, they dump so many contracts that it overpowers the buyers. This will cause holders to fold. However there are too many who plan to HODL BTC which means they are unable to fully drag down BTC prices unless they accept the risk of losing the BTC someone unwilling to sell.

There are still risks that crypto exchanges do transactions that bypass how much BTC they actual have (essentially scamming customers). Therefore if people were to withdraw all their BTC, they may not be able to pay our. This means there are too many factors to tell us for sure. It will depend on how much people are willing to pay to HODL, is the exchange ensuring they have enough BTC and whether enough of the financial institutions are willing to collaborate.

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If they can leverage out at higher and higher rates, they dont need our BTC. Look how quickly silver bullion out sold a few weeks, there is none on the market but they still control the price.

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They can but that relies on brokers. If brokers maintain enough integrity and only trade what they have, then there should not be issues. If people take their BTC off the exchanges, eventually they can't keep up the image as they will default. Which means if it is low enough, people can just buy and remove them from the exchange system.

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I would hate to see the bastardization of BTC and I would call out the fake market should government regulators try to create any derivative market of BTC and operate it as a fractional reserve basis.
As in the Precious metals community,
Hold only the real stuff.

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Yes, the key will be hodling your own BTC. Already you can see signs of what the OP is talking about. Grayscale is buying and custodying thousands of coins. What are those coins doing while they're hodling them? I imagine they're being borrowed against by institutions who are then selling short into the markets knowing they have a "source" to get the physical if needed. What really needs to happen here is leverage needs to end. THAT is what could really be dangerous.

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