April 30th, Traders await the publication of European statistics

On Thursday, April 29, trading in the euro ended slightly in the red. The EUR / USD pair fell 0.06% to 1.2115 (daily high at 1.2150). In the European session, the price fell to 1.2106 amid a sharp rise in the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds to 1.686%. With the rise in bond prices, the euro recovered to 1.2129.

Scheduled statistics (GMT +3):

• 11:00 Germany will announce the change in the volume of GDP for the 1st quarter.
• 11:00, the eurozone will publish the CPI for April, as well as announce changes in the volume of GDP for the 1st quarter and the unemployment rate for March.
• 15:30 Canada is to publish data on the change in the volume of GDP for February and release the producer price index for March. The US is to publish the March Personal Consumption Expenditure Index and the 1st Quarter Labor Cost Index, and will announce changes in personal income and spending for March.
• 16:45 the US will release the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for April, and at 5:00 pm, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April.
• 20:00 Baker Hughes will publish data on the number of active oil rigs.

Current situation:

A correction phase is observed for the euro from a maximum of 1.2150. Hourly indicators have unloaded, so the market is now balanced and ready for a price deviation of 0.4% or 0.62% from 1.2112. The price is near the balance line (sma 55).

Major currencies show mixed performance. Almost all of them went up, except for the euro and the yen. Among the growth leaders is the Australian (+ 0.37%), which can act as a locomotive for other pairs with the dollar. Surprisingly, Aussie and New Zealander strengthened against the US dollar after the release of weak Chinese statistics. The data had a negative impact on oil.

The index of business activity in the service sector in April was 54.9 against the forecast of 51.8 and 56.3 in March. The index of business activity in the industrial sector in April fell to 51.1 against the forecast of 55.9 and 51.9 in March.

On Friday before the weekend, the choice of the direction of price movement will depend on the yield of US government bonds, as well as data on GDP in Germany and the eurozone for the 1st quarter. If the data pleases investors, then we expect the euro to strengthen to 1.2160. If the GDP indices disappoint investors due to lockdowns, then there is a high probability that the price will fall to the 1.2094 trend line (4 and 5).

Summary: the EUR/USD pair is in a correctional phase awaiting the release of European statistics. Where the week will close will depend on the data on GDP in Germany and the eurozone for the 1st quarter. If the data pleases investors, then we expect the euro to strengthen to 1.2160. If the GDP indices disappoint investors due to lockdowns, then the price is likely to fall to the 1.2094 trend line. Also, the EUR/USD pair will be influenced by the dynamics of the yield on 10-year US bonds.

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