In Cycles We Trust (BUT Trust No One)

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I learned life's biggest lesson a long time ago watching X-Files: Trust No One

Sounds familiar?


Trust & Faith

To Trust; is to believe that someone is good and honest and will not harm you, or that something is safe and reliable.

To Have Faith: is to believe someone; to trust someone to do or be what is claimed.

To trust is to believe, I believe a little in everything, hence it makes sense to trust no one. Or as King David said: “It is better to take refuge in the Lord than to trust in man."

Trusting in the lord takes a lot of faith, as you will not meet him in this lifetime. But if it´s the good Lord he would probably not tell you to buy Bitcoin. Or swap your Bitcoin for some silly Altcoin.

I side with King David, mankind has a kind side. A friendly face, willing to help ......until there is profit to be made. At least the Lord does not care for profit. But many that speak on his behalf on Earth do.
https://images.hive.blog/DQmTu15RNRDMx8MhQU9Nn17MhJxdTL5vt5J4eNdxvVj2VR2/giphy%20(21).gif


Ulterior Motives

Okay enough Sunday school lessons, let me come to the point. In crypto you can trust No One. I mean we all trusted someone to get into this game, otherwise you would not be reading this. And many of those people were not aware of the ulterior motive they might have had to get you into crypto.

Maybe they were endorsed, maybe just spreading their affiliate link, maybe they actually thought they were helping you by sharing their endorsed affiliate link.

In this game everyone has an ulterior motive, knowing or unknowingly. And that is fine if you release that it´s perfectly fine. Because money making is a wonderful game & ulterior motives do not mean they automatically will get you REKT.

Not everyone is like Bitboy filling their own bags, some people don´t mind sharing their insights and actually help you grow. While they grow faster, but you can´t win them all.

It´s not who but what to trust

Now that we established that you can not trust anyone, what can you trust?
The easy answer is nothing, as nothing is certain although the chances that you die one day are probably the best odds you get in this life.

A less pessimistic view of crypto would be that there is something that might be worth having faith in.....

Those GD Cycles

Nope not that monthly cycle many ladies have to suffer and when they suffer their men suffer, but it´s probably not woke to call that out. What meant to call out are the BTC halving cycles.

If there is a clear and distinctive pattern in crypto it´s this one:

b6040421e82ff23a99751ea088d58e7c_post_1691729718364.png

Now being a crypto baby and stuff I did not give these cycles too much thought. I was making Money! And it seemed that it was not gonna stop! If I knew then what I know now, I would have been much wealthier, but I guess that goes for all of us.

I had faith in people calling for a Super Cycle, a prolonged cycle, and even though I took my profit at the top of the Nov 2021 bull market.... that faith was very much misplaced.

I should have trusted the cycle, but hell I was so wet behind the ears it was like I just came from the pool. I wanted to keep making money, so that self-serving bias threw me for the lions that called for a prolonged cycle.

Even though I knew we should go down at least 80% I did not think the time was now, but it was.

My Bad

And so I started buying in again when we were down 30% at around 50K and increased those buys at 40K and kept going till my 10K profit was down 80%. At that point, I realized two things;

I should have had faith in the Cycle & this is probably near the bottom so I better start buying.

So far, I was correct on the first point, we were at 21K, and I had been investing as I already used up all my profits since BTC hit 30K.

There is a catch

I am gonna treat this cycle as if it will be the last. Because it´s hard to truly trust that this will continue once the market gets regulated and institutions are incorporated. But as things look now I think it´s safe to say I trust that we will have one more cycle.

And with the money I invested, I need to have faith that cycles are real. They have delivered every time so far and that is a great track record.

But what if they stop?

Then I lose what I was willing to lose, as that is the only true way to play the game.

Bottom Line

Nothing is for certain, but a good pattern holds much more value than any cryptofluencer, chart guru, or no-financial advice friend.

Until now the cycle seems to repeat itself once again, if you want to know why exactly there are plenty of people out there that think they know why. Me, IDC I just follow the pattern and have faith, what else does a human have?

Thank goodness you made it till the end peace, love and I am out of here!

[Source Pic](All pictures are by MyI & AI)

Posted Using LeoFinance Alpha



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12 comments
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In the BTC Halving we trust! I wonder if this will be the last mega cycle or will it continue? Should we sell near the top again or just hodl!? Exciting times ahead for sure, good to see you are well positioned to take advantage.


I have picked this post on behalf of the @OurPick project which will be highlighted in the next post! Comment Footer.jpg

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My guess based on what I know and see is that it very well might be the last mega cycle before they get less explosive. As soon as adoption takes over cycles will diminish. But your next question is really what I am looking into and coming back on....because normally I would say sell from 150-180K and then upwards. Yes I expect those numbers and probably 200k as I would expect a 10-15X from the bottom hence say 12X from 15K hence 180K seems totally reasonable.

But should we sell? As soon as adoption is real I would not sell, If adoption still is growing I would sell half of my BTC holding. But I will not hold any ALTS when we go down, that is one lesson I learned. Well okay I will hodl my HP because of voting but all others will be sold at the top...... if there will be a top.

But basically, this is a sneek peak into a post that will not come for another 3 weeks!LOLZ

Thanks for picking up on my crypto posts it really motivates and I think I am getting my groove back😎

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That makes imo. We should be stacking now like we have never stacked before. Maybe I will lighten up 20% near the top, not sure yet. Looking forward to your post.

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That's a pretty easy way to visualize the cycles. I yet have to learn more about all that stuff but I just can't get myself to do so. Until I do, I only buy Hive stuff (just a few not all lol).

I agree that we should treat it as our last chance simply because you can't predict what all these new regulations will do and if they are able to put a halt to (part of) crypto. I'm defo going to DCA out as well ;) just in case..

!PIMP

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It´s your boyfriend's fault that I know more about economics and monetary stuff than ever before. Not just crypto but much broader and it´s really cool. Didn´t make me rich yet, but it will probably stop me from getting poor again.

But indeed that pic is really a great view and at least you know that you should not become someone's exit liquidity. DCA out, that describes it very well, and I hope to DCA out in brick, mortar, and silver (and lots of it please🤑 )

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The irony! If I let him control his own money, the end of the month would probably mean an empty bank every time, yet he manages to convince others how to earn stuff, pretty funny!

We made tons of mistakes, and at some point I was not fomo-ing anymore but listened to his fomo desires instead. Now I don't listen and just stick to my plan, lol. Works better. But I have to say, he's better in following these new projects, finding the right one etc, he just doesn't have time for it anymore, and I don't feel the desire to do so. I hate it.

But at least we all learned some lessons, didn't we? I mean we all hyped in things, fomo-ed in and out at the wrong moments. I learned a lot in the past two years mostly because before that, all earnings were needed in real life so it's a totally different mindset.

I've been someone's exit liquidity quite often I guess, but also had some very good trades and took a lot of profits as well. Just could have been MUCH more, especially the not seeing the Splinterlands bigger picture is the reason we're not half a millionaire I guess. I was playing (doing well) from the early days, first months, had tons of Gold foil legendary cards and also 2 of the limited (80 pieces) of the mystery cards. I can continue with more but it doesn't matter. Should've Could've Would've. I did not see how this could be something as big as it is now, VERY expensive lesson learned :)

I play safe mostly currently, and it feels good (and safe lol) meanwhile stacking euros when I can, even though savings are low at the moment because of the need for a new computer. Such is life. I'm very determined to grow our savings though, so I think the next few years will be life changing!

Let's be rich! :)

!PIMP

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I learned a lot in the past two years mostly because before that, all earnings were needed in real life so it's a totally different mindset.

Very much so, the weirdest thing is that it is indeed only since I got into crypto that I have been able to save Euro´s even though it seems unrelated I think that being conscious about stacking and making profit will work its way into your lifestyle.

Agree- Not looking back but taking the lessons learned and looking forward if can end up with a 6-8 X on what I invested at this point in time I would be very happy....although I think I can do way or at least a bit better.

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Well for me it was the fact that I was very determined to move from Hungary and managed to unlock all sorts of fiat making it happen that made me get into savings mode. I really don't feel comfortable now that we have less savings after buying the (needed) computer. So I guess some things make your mindset shift indeed.

I also never want to have all my "savings" into crypto but always have fiat savings too. I have seen it evaporate too many times just when we needed it :) lol

Getting smarter you see!?

!PIMP

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