Can I Trust The BTC Chart That Predicts The Future?

avatar

Fututr char.jpg

Last week I was talking about Crypto and trust. Well, more about how those two do not mix very well. Pointing out that you can not believe anyone in this space, because everyone has ulterior motives.

The only thing you might try trusting were the cycles, but what if you make a model based on those cycles?
What if you turn that into a chart, could you trust that chart?

What Chart?

Don´t tell me that you have not found this magical mystery chart that predicts the BTC future.

Seriously, you never heard of the: Bitcoin cycle repeat chart

Well you have now, and once it´s seen you can´t unsee it so I hope you took a good long look and saw this coming:

Screenshot 2023-08-15 121536.jpg

Yup, Sugar we are going down, further down than SBF took us last year, all the way to 15K by March 2024.

Am I spreading Doom or Gloom or giving you hope that you can still buy cheap?

If it´s one of those you have not learned last week´s lesson;

Don't trust anyone and nothing is for certain.

But based on the fact I have some faith in that cycle thingy, so how accurate is that Cycle Chart? Can I do some short-term trading based on these predictions?

Let me check it out and lose some money so you don´t have to!

For Example

Should I wait buying crypto till March 2024?

image.png

Well who knows, nothing is impossible but and this is my favorite but the Big Butt:

But I did my checks. Now let me tell you what I found.

I started my DYOR 18-April-2023

image.png

At that point, it looked like we would hit 49K by the end of May, make sure I sell and go away.
And we would only be pulling up by mid-November, Sell in Jan 2024 as we have an eye on the dip mid-Feb.

In Reality, Nothing happened from April;

image.png

It was one big flatbread since March

21-April-2023

image.png

Expectations were a Low 27K in that first week of May while first going back to 30K.

In reality, that was bloody accurate:

image.png

We touched 30K ain't the end of April and went a little below 27K first 10 days of May.

30-April-2023

image.png

See how the expected before the blow-off top is melting from 49K it dipped to a little above 40K in just two weeks. Still, I am holding my bags to sell in May and go away because the next time we hit 40K will be in early August 2024. But the Dip in early May now shows 25.7 and as per our check, it did not go below 26.3.

08-May-2023

image.png

So now we should hit 33K in a week, but in reality:

image.png

We did not even get to 31K by the end of June.

18-May-2023

image.png
That 49K peak, went to 40K, and within a month it is 37K by the end of May, but as we all know even that did not happen.

31-May-2023

image.png

We had no blow-off top to sell in May and go away, and expectations are that by the end of June, we would hit a very low 24K. While in reality, the ETF story took BTC to 30K again.

image.png

15-August-2023

Now look at the future of Bitcoin:

image.png

We should hit 21.5K on the first day of my October Holidays, hence the 12th of October, and a month later we should be below 20K again.

image.png

But in that October month, we would go back to 27K, so buy the dip mid-October, sell at the end of October, buy the November dip, and then wait till after X-Mas for the next little pump.

Just to synch that with what the chart looked when I started my little test:

image.png

It looked like we were pulling up by mid-November back then, but now that same mid-November is a nice buy-the-dip opportunity.
So the dips might shift but the volatility makes sense.

EDIT

As I was working on this story we had that dip to 25K on the 17th of August; The initial part of that dip we expected to happen in the 2nd week of September. That September Dip is still there, it´s just a little less steep.

21-August-2023

image.png

Bottom Line

It´s very clear that in Crypto History does not repeat, but it does rhyme.

Short-term trades based on the Cycle Repeat chart seem to fail more often than they deliver.

What it does do is help you zoom out, see the bigger picture, and understand that based on historical data 19K three months from now would not be weird at all.

It shows that even just before the halving there can be several opportunities to get in at the right time.

No Financial Advice

Best not to look at the dates too much, but keep your eyes on those opportunities.
Best not DCA all your dollars, but also keep a stash of dry powder to buy the real dip.....because Dip Is Coming.

Thank goodness you made it till the end peace, love and I am out of here!

[Source Pic](All pictures are by MyI & AI)

Posted Using LeoFinance Alpha

hive-167922 btc future chart bro pimp pob ctp gems leofinance
0
0
0.000
9 comments
avatar

The Dip is coming! That sounds great. There seems to be a few predictions for 21k Bitcoin or there abouts. Exciting times!

I have picked this post on behalf of the @OurPick project which will be highlighted in the next post! Comment Footer.jpg

0
0
0.000
Reply
avatar

Based on my intel the pre halving period should be really volatile, so we should get opportunities but you will need to fast and have your dry powder at hand.

I really love this chart, although I did learn to take it with a pinch of salt after doing my research. Thanks for picking this post as I actually spend months on this one !LOLZ

0
0
0.000
Reply
avatar

I plan on just doing what I have been doing. I DCA a small amount every month. I am also buying some USDC so come March I might move all of that into BTC. Between those two, I think I should be good. I remember March of 2020 when BTC went down to $3000. I should have bought more back then and not sold it a couple of months later like I did. I was still learning though.

0
0
0.000
Reply
avatar

We keep learning, that is what makes this stuff fun...although at a cost. I have never liked DCA I rather DCA the dips. So I might buy something at the bottom.

My next lesson and struggle is how long do I hold.

I noticed last bull run that often it pays to sell after a part during the run-up and buy back on the way down in the same short-term period (couple of weeks). But you risk not being able to buy back in.

Now I did not buy anything prior to the bull run as I started out end of 2020, so this way I grew my stacks. I want to do a similar thing next time. But also set aside a significant amount for when we get to the BTC top and the ALTszn that will bring. But let´s see what lemons life will throw at us this time !LOLZ

0
0
0.000
Reply
avatar

I have some soft targets set for myself so that I at least take a little bit of profit while I am waiting for the "top". That way even if I miss it, I still win a little bit.

0
0
0.000
Reply