Bags To The Future - I have a Bull Market Plan
Bags to the future?? What the hell is that for a title?
Well, it´s a title for a post I have been considering for quite a while. Because like many of you, I was left holding very expensive bags and seeing them melt. Melt in price and not increase in size. Bags I bought at the end of the bull run, or way too early on the way down.
What to do with my old bags?
What did you do with those bags?
Sold at a loss?
Holding and Hoping they pump again next bull run?
If a coin pumped last run, that is no guarantee they pump again this run. You can definitely expect them to move, but they might not do that 10X you need to break even. Might, being an understatement.
Some narratives from the last run will not see a similar growth. Other narratives might not even take off again.
That doesn´t mean that many coins will probably set a new ATH. I expect blue chips such as ADA and MATIC to easily get to their previous tops and possibly go beyond. They will probably do that 15x without breaking a sweat.
But for example, a coin like Sand I see as a bigger risk.
The Metaverse narrative is as good as dead. Same goes for NFTs all magical words last run, and now they seem like signs of the time that has passed.
What Shitcoins Am I Holding
I have reviewed my bags and swapped them lately for more relevant narratives, Luckily I held mostly layer ones, layer two´s, but still, there was enough poo left that I felt like swapping for something more modern.
And swapping is not losing, you don´t lose a penny if you swap to a more promising narrative.
Of course everyone says AI is the new narrative, and it is but it also is a big risk. I don´t invest too much in AI until the bulls really start running because it´s shaky ground. SEC is going after AI, Crypto and AI are not a match made in heaven and just like NFTs this narrative can be gone before you know it....and certainly before we see BTC at a new ATH.
If we get another bull run what is my strategy?
Based on my previous article about seeing the future based on historical data I expect that we will see one more dip around the halving (26th April 2024).
That is when I will put my ear to the ground and invest in the narratives that are popular at that point in time. Of course only a part, I will diversify quite a bit.
In addition, I am holding 60% of my portfolio in BTC and a bit of ETH which I will not change. The exciting stuff sits with that 40%, those I plan to play with and invest in the below.
Narratives I like:
Popular Layer Ones (Injective Kadena Polkadot Radix FTM Phala Network)
Layer two´s (ARB, OP)
Blue Chips (ADA, ALGO, VET THETA)
Some small caps (MoonBeam, NGC, ROSE Opul LTO EWT)
New Narratives (DYDX CFX PBX KAVA RNDR)
So I know what I want to be holding, and I am pretty much on track. I am holding 12.5% of that 40% still in stables but with the dips I foresee I plan to have none left by May 2024.
It´s a bit much!
Yup, maybe my play portfolio as I like to call it is a bit much with 25 coins/tokens. But it´s already an improvement from what I had last time.
By the end of the last bull run, I was holding close to 70 tokens????
Why Not?
I thought it was smart to diversify, and if something sounded interesting I had to have it. And in the bull run that was okay, buy the dip sell it at 10-30% up, and repeat.
This did not work in the bear market and left me with some very expensive bags, bags that might never see a future. So far only one of them really died as it was delisted but costed more in fees to move than what was left of the bags worth.
But many of these bags potentially will never reach their ATH, so as I said I swapped most. Still holding some like QI and HOD hoping for a miracle.
The Plan
My master plan is to sell what I can sell from these old bags during the first ALTSZN. That would also apply to narratives that I expected to do good, but let me down a little.
Ending up with a play portfolio with about 20-25 tokens. Because that is the max I can track. And when I see track it´s both prices and future developments. If I can get back to 15 even better.
What happens in 2025
Here is where my plan is still a work in progress. By mid-2024 I expect to be done accumulating, this is when prices should start to go up. When prices are clearly moving up, and BTC is and remains above 35K I stop investing and accumulating and start praying.
On my knees, hands stretching to the heavens hoping I at least bought some 1000X´s.
Why 35K, because I expect that to be 80% from the conservative top, meaning I expect BTC to top out at 175K at the least. I´ll get to where I get that number from in a minute, but it´s just math.
That´s where it gets difficult
As I always say I was born in a bull run and I traded my $200 dollars up to $2400 by selling on the way up and buying back during the dips.
That was because I missed out on the accumulation phase, now I have options.
Will I go all Diamond Hands till November 2025:
Or time the dips and trade my way up?
There are so many fanatic hodlers that claim they made more by holding than I could make trading the bull run.
When I say trading it´s really simple, I sell on the way up and buy back on the way down, because volatility is your friend in a bull run.
I did very well last time and did a 12X on my initial $200 investment.
Now I have not tried that hodl thing but it sounds boring. Still, I will need to figure it out for myself. Hence by Q3 of 2024 I will split my play portfolio into a hodl and a trade section.
It will at least give me the satisfaction of trading and the possible bigger returns on hodling.
My next struggle is how long do I hold
I got the selling on the way up and buying on the way down covered. But how long should one hodl?
Last time we did almost a 20x from the 3.5K bottom to the 68K top. So being conservative we can do a 10X BTC. 10X will do at least 150K.
That will be my call to look at my hodl portfolio and start selling. That should be around April 2025:
It would give me from April till November to get a nice price for the ALTS I have been holding.
While I would also ensure that I would sell my buyback the dip portfolio in this period.
I love it when a plan comes together
You need a plan & need to be flexible because a plan is only a plan on paper. If reality throws you lemons you make a Mojito without lime.
But at least I have a plan:
- I know what Coins I want
- I have time to accumulate
- I can buy the bottom and sell on the way to the top
- I trust in cycles and their timeline.
- I know the top is the start of the bear market.
- I know the bear-market bottom is always lower than you expect and higher than you hope
- I trust that whatever top we reach the next bottom is about 80% of that top (e.g. the next bottom should be at least 36K)
Bottom Line
My Financial Advice @thisismylife check what you are holding from the last bull run. Swap the dead narratives for something more popular and then make a plan!
- Plan till when you will accumulate.
- Plan your strategy, e.g, buy the dip sell on the way up, hodl, or a bit of both.
- Plan your profit margins and timeline, e.g. when should I start selling & by when should it be sold?
And most importantly, have a plan; stick with it, but be flexible.
Thank goodness you made it till the end peace, love and I am out of here!
[Source Pic](All pictures are by Meme, MyI & AI)
Posted Using LeoFinance Alpha
In that case, it seems I'm good lol. Already dumped most of the shit stuff along the way as I was Hive focussed mostly. A few things are locked in and one can only pray they will ever go up again, until then it's just a loss in my opinion.
!PIMP
You must be killin' it out here!
@thisismylife just slapped you with 1.000 PIMP, @whywhy.
You earned 1.000 PIMP for the strong hand.
They're getting a workout and slapped 1/3 possible people today.
Read about some PIMP Shit or Look for the PIMP District
Sounds you are not troubled by old bags, which is great because they would have not been as worthless when you sold them as they are today.
Locking stuff up, yeah..... I saw many people do that on TORUM and miss out on probably the only opportunity they had to get more than $1 per XTM. I was so happy I did not do that and walked away with 5K. But who knows maybe it will pay off one day ?
But does that mean you also have no need for a plan as everything atm is locked or HIVE focussed?
Nah, it means I stopped fomo-ing into other stuff as I did not want to constantly follow the process and check if the project didn't die or rugged anymore. So I only focussed on adding to one pair of liquidity to grow my stash there and compound daily. The whole project is struggling though so if it ever goes back up, not sure.
Then I started growing my HP and PIMP power so didn't worry about buying anything else.
Right now I'm trying to get to 100k pimp as I can distribute another daily tip when I do, for the bull I'm not sure yet. So no, don't have a plan yet, not really paying much attention atm to crypto in general. Should start doing so but not today, or tomorrow or probably next week. Maybe when kid is back to school :)
Hope you guys are good!
Stop Procrastinating and get in the game, you only have 6 more months or so... !LOLZ
100K PIMP??? That is like 1K in fiat? Oh damn I am not even close having 400+ staked 😂how much do you need to hold to PIMP tip?
Yeah we are doing great, incredibly happy with the weather, work is still okay as I only had to work from 8-15 since mid-July till 1st Sep.
I don´t hear a lot from the US but if we speak it´s all good so not too worried, biggest worry right now is how to buy a house next year if we do. Interest is crazy so we might buy a step up but not the final resting place 🤪But I might also wait another year for interest to really go down
lolztoken.com
We are called the Algebros.
Credit: theabsolute
@thisismylife, I sent you an $LOLZ on behalf of whywhy
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LOL, what I'm doing is prioritizing, not procrastinating :) been doing the exact opposite of that lately. But some days (like this morning) my back is a pain in the butt (literally) and I'm reminded of that phone call to a clinic I'm indeed procrastinating (dumb, yes but I read shitty reviews about them so that doesn't help, gonna do another attempt right now after this message)
I think right now it should be around 1k indeed. I started buying in way earlier though, it's gone up. Tip: use beeswap to swap from hive to PIMP instead of in the HE market ;)
1000 PIMP staked gives you 1 tip a day (1 pimp) check this post for all info: https://peakd.com/hive-111011/@enginewitty/pimp-v30
This weather is amazing compared to July, I mean, some days are hot yes, but nothing as unbearable anymore as the July heatwave so I'm good!
Sounds nice just until 3 :)
Good that everything seems fine on the other side of the world, must give some peace of mind.
Yeah I'm not too sure about moving and whereto right now either I really would prefer being gone here before end of year but first I need to get savings back up, working on that right now. We'll see.
We should meet up soon!
That is an excuse many procrastinators use....Just saying 😂
With regards to moving, I thought I had a great idea, lets rent my place out for a year and rent a house somewhere till interests goes down.
En Serio??? From Malaga to Valencia it seems impossible to find a decent place to rent for 650 euro or less???
I just need a slightly modern place, not too much clutter or furniture, 3 bedrooms, and that for 650.....
I mean the house in Loma Verde had it all and a pool and I paid 600 I think or 550. So well that plan seems to fail atm because in that case I stay here for 450 including comunidad and insurance.
Guess I still am a cheap Dutch guy wanting to sit front row for a dubbeltje
Don't care if that's the case, it's not true. Working freaking hard every day to build something just not with crypto. It's lower on my priority list ;)
It's possible to find them as I found several but you need to either take them unfurnished or partially, or don't care about the furniture. The latter, I'm not interested in anymore, using someone else's crap. :)
In terms of beaches, I'd prefer moving up to Valencia or so but it's another one of these moves to a place we haven't visited yet lol, so it would be tricky (again). And I don't know if I really want to move further up.
Oh well, can't move us out of here today anyway so it's a worry for another month :)
The thing is, it costs so much time to be on top of it as you have to act NOW and hope you were the first one to respond, if not, another one probably took the home first. Been there 100s times now, taking a break from that lol.
As Hannibal says, I love it when a plan comes together! That sounds like a great strategy and I am looking forward to that pre-halving dip. With all those coins in your bag it will be an exciting bull run for you for sure!
I have picked this post on behalf of the @OurPick project which will be highlighted in the next post!
Exactly, although atm I am happy I have a plan now let´s hope life does not happen....again.
It´s still a bit much huh? I think so too. But I am already slashing my 77 coins down to 25. At least 25 I can keep track of. Last run I bought everything that passed the sniff test and had some hype going. I really want to be more focussed, but there is so much cool stuff out there it´s like I am a baby in a candy store.
Thanks for picking up on this story and lets see how our bags will look in the future!
Hi Sir @whywhy,
Good Morning
can we have a chat over Discord?
I've not been planning something like this in a while but I should get back accumulating. I still hold some old bags from 2016 that I barely touch. At the same time, I was too jaded with the market back in 2020 but it's time to start caring again and give myself 2-3 years to accumulate. Great plans you have right there.
Thanks!
It´s indeed time to start caring again, if the cycles remain the same you might want to be prepped. I could not do so last time so trying to learn from my previous mistakes.
Like you, I have a plethora of altcoins that I am sitting on. The good news is, my life's savings had nothing to do with it, so I am pretty safe no matter what happens. I'd rather ride a token all the way down to zero before I sold at a loss, so I likely will just keep doing what I have been doing. I agree with you that tokens which blew up last run probably won't this run. People in crypto are fickle and they have moved on from most of those. I do have some soft targets set that I hope get met, then I can take some gains. For example, if token x which is now at $.02 hits $.25, I will sell 20,000 of my stack or something like that. If even a few of those soft targets hit, it should put me in a good place for the next bear market.
I totally agree with those targets, I still need to work them out a little but that also depends on what will run and what won´t.
I used to fully agree with that until someone showed me the data. Swapping bags that you expect not to run for bags that you expect to run is not selling at a loss. Both are probably on a very nice low atm, the question is which will give you a better high.
Yeah, that is a good point about the tokens. I've found it is hard to find that price that is low enough that you are okay selling for, but high enough that it isn't unreasonable to expect it could reach that point. Using my example, is $.25 on a currently $.02 token realistic?
Yes that is a realistic aim, if the coin was in the previous bull that also helps as well to establish the minimal top you expect. The old ATH, or price it traded around for several consecutive days at its top.
It all depends very much on the narrative but any decent project should see a 10X from the current low if you ask me, unless the project is dead of course.
Great info. Thanks. Unfortunately, a lot of my tokens are tied to NFT projects and while they may not be dead, I am afraid the hype is no longer there. Then there's CUB. I'm not sure what I can expect from that!
I did some digging as I expected NFTs to be deadish. But most people that are really close to projects expect there is a future for NFT projects especially those related to gaming. I think we might be surprised about NFTs coming back but they will need a better use case than last time
Yeah, I can see that. Established games might see a resurgence (hopefully), but I think people are going to be hesitant about throwing money at startups that are empty promises. I guess we will see. I'd just like to see the price of WAX get close to $1 again like it was before.
Awesome post. You've been selected for @ecency curation. Keep up the good work.
Thank you, I was quite happy with how it turned out but I rather hear other peoples opinion 😇
Yay! 🤗
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