COVID19 is back ! And it will crash both Cryptocurrencies & Stock Market 😭

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(Edited)

Dear Hivers,

Humans have always fascinated me, they are easily influenced (for the better or worse) and most of them are not capable to develop their own critical thinking and will comply with the norm/herd.

What really amazed me is in my job I need to see and analyse events before the rest of my peers, people.

What shocked me is back in the end of January, I wrote to my colleagues and bosses:

"We do not know if this pandemic will be catastrophic but the way we and other market participants deny it is even happening is making me speechless."

Well, my entire company, brokers thought it was a non-event. "Look at SRAS, it does not last, V-shaped recovery... blablabla". Even with facts showing it was definitely not like SRAS in terms of R0 and impact.

Well we all know what happened next to financial & crypto markets

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This was the 1st TIME, a pandemic pressured the CCCP in China to:

  • Close its internal air traffic (most of its international partners followed just a few days later)
  • Put an entire region of more than 70-120mn inhabitants in full lockdowns
  • Give a multi billion funding to WHO just a few days before this pandemic appeared in Western newspaper
  • Destroying evidence, massively using propaganda and making many whistle-blowers disappear

My question was simple:

Knowing the CCCP, would you think they would have taken these measure for a SRAS like type of virus and "only" 3000 deaths?

I guess I do not need to reply to this statement.

What's funny is that European countries reacted late (even seeing the Italian situation) and when they reacted, they became in full lock-down mode. Nothing was measured/rational.

Basically it went from complete denial to extreme fear.

And now? Well at least where I live, it seems Covid19 disappeared totally and this entire situation is OVER since we lifted lock downs measures.

Well, Guess what? Looking at the datas, COVID19 is still in its prime-time and is in for a come-back in Europe !

Difference between media coverage and reality

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Did I write this post just to ramble about the past? Not really...

Let's look at the daily datas from the best website out there (every data included is sourced and reliable).

Here is the source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Daily Cases have never been higher than yesterday !

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This is the most shocking thing for a European/American. It feels like COVID19 is an old story, but it has been devastating LATAM for the past weeks and is now ramping up in Middle-East and Asia (India, Bangladesh Pakistan...)

USA

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This is THE MOST IMPORTANT country to know if stocks and/or cryptocurrencies will crash.

As you can see, the number of new daily cases is slowly increasing again since the lock-downs have been lifted in most states.

As the CDC said: "We will not re-confine the population if a 2nd wave happens".

  1. This is not the "2nd wave", this is the continuation of the 1st one.
  2. . You should read the CDC comment as: "Cases are going to improve dramatically and we cannot do anything".

What is the most worrisome is that states (as California) which did everything as well as they could are seeing a strong increase in daily cases.

California

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Florida

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Latin America

Brazil

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Mexico

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Asia

India

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Pakistan

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Saudi Arabia

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To conclude, even without datas we learned that China put a number of neighborhood in Bejing in quarantine over the weekend as the pandemic seems to be gaining steam in the capital

So, COVID19 is back and?

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Well, I believe what is very interesting is the difference in narrative/view today compared to 1 month ago.

It seems as if Covid19 is behind us in Europe/North America, but when you look at datas, it definitely isn't.

It took a month and a half for investors to realize it back in March. I believe this will be faster this time 😉.

Stocks Markets are back or closer to neutrality in the US after its short COVID19 crisis and most actors are thinking 2020 will be a bad year but we will get a recovery and 2021-2022 will be fine.

Well... If, as the data suggests; COVID19 has not and will not be stopped by lock downs it means we will have to live with it for the months/years to come.

This would imply that many parts of our economies (tourism, entertainment industry, airlines/aeronautic,restaurants/clubs...) will have to reinvent themselves and this "new world" will have extra costs.

**People might save massively anticipating that the current short term lay-offs may become permanent ones. Also, social unrest should increase as people will have issues to make both-ends meet.

In the short term, I believe we will have another big stocks and cryptocurrencies crash.

Let's remember that the March BTC Crash was correlated with the one happening in the financial markets

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This is why I plan to have some cash for Monday's Stock Market open.
... And of course I will have some cash for my beloved cryptocurrencies as well 🙂.

I would love to hear your thoughts !

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23 comments
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Cool article, I think the French government did the right thing by locking all of us up for 3 months.

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At least 2 weeks late if you ask me, and maintaining the election has been proved to be the strongest catalysis.

Nevertheless, I am more disappointed by the lies from our government:

  • It will not come to France
  • Masks are useless
  • This is a flu
  • The Italian situation will not happen here because they basically suck

And how they managed the masks/testing situation. Let's not forget we were the ONLY country in Europe without masks for its entire population and with the lowest test levels.

Not saying another French party would have done better, just saying our government did a shittier job than neighbors (except UK).

Cheers !

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Haha, that's fair enough,we did better than Italy and Spain too imo ;)

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We had all the information a week in advance of Italy/Spain and still managed to get almost the same number of deaths/million inhabitants :D.

Aren't we supposed to have the BEST healthcare system in the world? 😁

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Yeah, the gov definitely got caught dear-in-the-headlight fashion there but honestly we've been keeping most people employed and we haven't experienced a breakdown of law and order like in the US, on balance I think we did B+, the French love to complain about their government tough ;)

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Really nice data. If this source is reliable we are on a much more worse situation than I thought. Things in my country are improving, but the world effect is still increasing. I am sitting with some cash to buy if the 2nd wave arrives.

Cheers! 😊

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I had forgotten the link, here it is. Have fun checking it out for Spain for example.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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Thanks!
Spain looks better by the way:

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(Edited)

It does ! the entire Western Europe looks like this but if you do the moving average of the past 7 days and think that lock-downs measures have been kind of lifted for the past 10 days. You can think that these daily cases can only go up.

Our only "real hope" was the weather but looking at the current COVID19 wave in Africa/India/Iran, hot weather will not kill this virus.

For Western Europe; the question is simple:
"Will we be below 1k new cases a day next Friday".

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Really good points. Let's see how this evolves, it doesn't look good...

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I think it happens in places where people’s immune systems are deficient! Even in Wuhan, a few old ladies never got infected because their herbalists told them to take Chaga tea everyday!
But you could take lots of VitaminC like those marines of the CCP, but add D3 as well.

Most infected people showed the low level of Vit C and D3. The elites don’t want you to know how to protect yourself!

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Hello there @kaminchan,

I do not think it affects only deficient immune systems. It might KILL only those but I know young people with no prior conditions glued to their bed for a month with no energy and 3 months AFTER recovery, they still are exhausted.

We know so few things about it:
Smokers seem to be less affected, women also.
Some blood types are also more affected. It kills less Asian people than blacks for example (maybe due to the virus mutating).

It is just a big unknown.

Thanks so much for commenting and taking the time to read this article ;D

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All your comments have been covered by published academic papers in several countries!

There’s a hidden agenda for not wanting people to know the truth and the preventive measures! Yup! Dark coloured people and poorer people who could not afforded to eat properly will be in very dicey situations. It’s been designed or engineered for social re-engineering. So much people don’t read or search, so they’ll never see the big picture.

There’s a warning out today about a second attack as the number of dead people had been disappointingly lower than expected!!

Several academic papers on the importance of vitamins!! Serious reading and research is required! If you could read my language, you’ll know that our doctors could cure infected people within two days! But it’s better to keep this quiet, the drug lobby groups are not very happy with this. We don’t want to see people being suicided! Knowing the truth can be quite painful.

Good luck.

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Well we agree to disagree but looking where you are from you definitely have and should have a different perspective as Thailand and South East Asia as a whole has almost NO DEATH which I cannot explain...

There is a strong ethnicity factor which we do not understand too. How can Singapore have more than 30K cases and only 25 deaths?

It must be a different variation of the virus, statistics do not make sense to me.

Let's hope your country continues to manage this well :D

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Dear @vlemon

One of those posts, which surely are worth checking out and reading through.

Indeed, people are denying reality until it's hammering them down. It's amazing to see how badly we (humans) are seeking for good news, good predictions, good emotions. Almost like most of us would not be capable of handling negative emotions and we would always need to convince ourselfs, that everything is okey. And that everything will be okey.

Knowing the CCCP, would you think they would have taken these measure for a SRAS like type of virus and "only" 3000 deaths?

Indeed. Good point. Most liklely they wouldn't commit to such a heavy lockdown, even it that number would be 10x larger.
ps. Look at SRAS, it does not last -> typo (should be "SARS")


This is THE MOST IMPORTANT country to know if stocks and/or cryptocurrencies will crash.

I'm trying to see connection between C19 and cryptocurrency market crashing and I'm kind of ...failing to see it.

I would expect that US administation will do everything in their power to protect stock martket. Even if that would mean printing more money and pumping it into stock market. Trumph and central banks around the world will probably see it as their priority.

Eventually part of those funds will find it's way to other asset classes. Especially since risk of strong inflation is growing and investors will try to secure their wealth.

In the short term, I believe we would get another big stocks and cryptocurrencies crash.

At the end of reading your post ... I still don't know where your anticipation of another crypto crash would be coming from.


Any idea what Switzerland and Hungary did that allowed them to drop new daily cases to such a low levels?

Upvoted already :)
Yours, Piotr

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Hello @crypto.piotr,

ps. Look at SRAS, it does not last -> typo (should be "SARS")

Thank you for this, I need to correct it ASAP.

I'm trying to see connection between C19 and cryptocurrency market crashing and I'm kind of ...failing to see it.

Well as you stated after this sentence, US and Europe would print more money and this is positive in the long term but in the short term as seen in March, people sell everything Liquid therefore Stocks, Bonds and Cryptos as they enter the "panic mode".

At the end of reading your post ... I still don't know where your anticipation of another crypto crash would be coming from.

This is just a thought but I believe if Stocks Markets would lose 20% Crypto will also be in negative territory ;D.

I hope I am wrong hehe

Switzerland and Hungary closed borders very early and were able to track cases (they were never overwhelmed).

Spain, Italy, France, Belgium, UK have had so many deaths because it was too late to track and quarantined cases, the virus was spreading everywhere.

Cheers,

@vlemon

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Dear @vlemon,

I have a quite different perception.
1.) Stock market and crypto market are uncorrelated, crypto is more like gold than equites
2.) crypto depends on central bank action and a new outbreak could make central banks print even more money..
3.) crypto went down in march as did gold maybe because people had to sell to cover other losses.... and people did not have the experience before of how crypto will behave in a crisis situation... now they know
4.) In general a second outbreak will be seen as nothing really new.. people are more familiar with it now, not surprised any more and will adapt
5.) Vaccine and cure are closer with each passing day
6.) Having said this I would be surprised if crypto and stocks would not stay very volatile in the current situation or with a second outbreak and in general because we will have some very bad news coming from the economy... but who does not already calculate that in?

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Thanks for dropping by and this birlliant comment buddy

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Hello there @solarwarrior,

  1. I would believe from an academic point of view but it just isn' true in "reality" Stocks are correlated to Bitcoin and vice-versa, especially tech stocks 5cf last Daily Crypto News)
  2. Agreeing 100% but this will play out in Medium Term Long Term in my opinion
  3. Same thing could happen in a new crash right?
  4. Also true but investors believe Coronavirus impact is OVER; whereas if outbreaks happen again, consumption and therefore employment and the economy will be impacted.
  5. True but we never found one for many other new diseases (ebola or aids)
  6. Agreeing also, volatility is going to increase again

Thank you for this great comment as @crypto.piotr mentionned :D

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The pandemic is not behind us yet, and it is mind-boggling that it continues despite the precautions in place. Can you imagine where the state of our world health and economy would be now if country/state/city/community leaders did not put measures in place when they did?! I think that the US will not allow the economy to fail, not with Trump's leadership. He and his administration will do what it will take to protect the US economy.
Thank you for the graphs that you provided in this article. It was very helpful for me. Great article!
Take care, @vlemon 🥰🌺🤙

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Thank you for this nice comment and I truly hope we will all make it okay.

Indeed, there will be no more national lockdowns in western country.

Take care,

@vlemon

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Very insightful post! I love posts that are backed with data and charts 😁

I agree that there is a big risk of a 2nd COVID-19 infection wave, especially when large number of protesters are heading to the streets.

I also agree if there is a 2nd COVID-19 wave, it is likely going to lead to another stock market crash. However, I think the key question will be whether we will see the same level of shock in the market and if we will see a lower low. My guess is that it is not so likely that we will see the same level of shock we saw in Mar 2020.

In Feb/Mar 2020, the markets were very greedy, there were many risk-on investments and many leveraged positions. Hence, when the market crash, there was a sudden liquidity crunch which resulted in the big sell-off. Now, with the Fed, ECB, BoJ and PBoC already added so much liquidity into the system, I doubt we will see that same level of liquidity crunch. In addition, after the crash, people are a little more cautious in general. Hence, it is less likely that the market is of the same level of leverage as in Feb/Mar.

Hence, I am of the opinion that we are unlikely to see a lower low, at least not in the very near-term. If the 2nd wave of COVID-19 do happen and gain media attention, we will see a correction. But the various central banks are already prepared to act. There are many facilities that have already passed and all they have to do is to pump more money to stabilize the market.

To summarize, I think a correction is likely to happen but we won't see a lower low and the magnitude and velocity of the crash will also not be as great as what we saw in Feb/Mar. It is certainly wise to set aside a sum of money to buy on that dip 😉

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