What Is Longevity Escape Velocity And What Could The Economic Impact Be?
Futurists are continually seeking the Fountain of Youth (or Immortality). So far, it seems like pie-in-the-sky stuff. That could be changing.
Humanity has long dreamed about the idea of extending life expectancy and, perhaps, reaching immortality. It was the domain of the Gods, something people were enamored about.
This continues today. It is also a concept that is held by some of the smartest technology minds we have.
Nevertheless, the advancements of the digital world over the last 4 decades has many believing that bio-tech could go on a similar curve.
So let us dig into this and see what the potential economic consequences could be.
Image from YouTube.
What Is Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV)?
This is a part of the life extension movement. It is the idea that we can reach the point where the life expectancy advances at a pace greater than the time elapsed. We usually see this framed over a year period.
In short, it is the concept that we will see life expectancy advance more than a year for each one that passes.
The foundation is solid in the sense that, at each age, we saw an increase due to medical advancement. Of course, there is a big jump from incremental moves in life expectancy to outpacing the aging process.
This is where the debate comes in, which is outside the scope of this article.
For further research on the topic, Ray Kurzweil and Aubrey de Grey are two noted proponents of this concept.
Economic Impact
Radical life extension would cause massive disruption from an economic standpoint. To be honest, society is not ready for this if it were to occur.
To start, we already see pension and retirement plans under pressure. This would only be compounded if people lived a great deal longer. Governments are already feeling the strain of excessive debt levels. This would make it skyrocket.
Another issue stems from motivation. Many look forward to being able to stop working. How would people feel about living, say, 70 years longer if it had to be spent working? Is this something people would be interested in?
We already have the issue with automation, especially artificial intelligence, threatening jobs. Would society be served by having hundreds of millions (maybe billions) hanging around without contributing?
Of course, this might not be an issue depending upon how technology develops. Automation and advancement could send economic productivity skyrocketing. Hence, we might be able to have an "older" society requiring less workers. It appears we are heading in that direction anyway.
A massive jump in life expectancy would put this on steroids.
There is also the issue with children. Under the present system, countries with low fertility rates are facing massive economic headwinds.
Would this continue?
Wealth Inequality
One question that is regularly brought up regarding this topic is whether this will compound the wealth inequality problem that we see.
People living longer means they would have a chance to compound the return on their assets. This would help the average person who has investments. The issue is most do not fall into this category.
Those with wealth would be able to keep them growing for decades longer than we are now dealing with. Would this become a problem?
Some, like myself, hypothesize that cryptocurrency and digital assets are going to change this. That said, since we are dealing with speculation on that end of things, we will leave that aside.
Thus, if we are dealing with more of the existing system, a possible outcome could be an increase in wealth inequality. This could be less of an issue as technology advances, providing more services that were demonetized, removing the need for money in this regard.
Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) Disruption
While we cannot predict the possibility if this will even come to fruition, one thing we can assert is there will be major disruption taking place. Society is not prepared for what is coming, regardless of the level of the advancement.
Dealing with an aging population is tough enough, Things really change when we look at adding in longevity.
logo by @st8z
Posted Using LeoFinance Alpha
I'm counting on Ray to be right on this one. Even if he is though, I think what many people will miss (and one of the biggest reasons wealth inequality will matter) is that only those who take the best care of themselves will hit this escape velocity. If you're a pile of stress and constantly working to make ends meet, its unlikely you'll be in that group.
Ray has a tendency to be about a decade early with his predictions. He tends to over estimate Moore's Law.
If he is right, I would look for 2040 to be closer to the time it happens.
I believe at this point will need to remove money from the motivation equation. A world where another motivation factor will be invented.
Money is a medium for trade. Thus it is the conduit between goods and services. People confuse money with wealth.
Il y a une différence entre les deux. ;)
This is an interesting topic. Well, I think that will have a negative effect on the economy. I can't say for other continents, but Africa will even suffer more on this if it comes to fruition. However, I still believe only those that have enough money have access to it. Most of the solutions providers still do it to make themselves rich.
Of course, most people would do the same thing in their shoes.
Congratulations @taskmaster4450le! You have completed the following achievement on the Hive blockchain And have been rewarded with New badge(s)
Your next target is to reach 93500 replies.
You can view your badges on your board and compare yourself to others in the Ranking
If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word
STOPCheck out our last posts: