The Streaming Wars Is Not Going To End Well
We are now in the middle of the streaming wars.
Unfortunately, this is now the end of the golden age of streaming. In every war, there has to be a loser. In this one, it is the customer.
This was not the case a decade ago. Yet, starting in 2019, everything changed.
Hence why the consumer is going to be drug through the muck before this gets resolved. Eventually, I believe this opens the door for Web3.
Let us take a look at what is going on.
Netflix
A decade ago Netflix was king.
At that time, it was the only streaming service. It was buying content from other studios, providing them with a stream of revenues. It was also producing hits like House of Cards and Orange is the New Black.
In hindsight, the Netflix model was fool's gold. Nevertheless, the studios fell for it, with everyone deciding to get into the streaming game. If, after all, Netflix could clean up, what would entities that have 100 years worth of content do?
This was the viewpoint that they had.
Fast forward to now, the answer is simple: lose money.
Streaming has turned into a bottomless pit of money. Disney has spent over $10 billion so far and there is no end in sight as to what they are going to put into it. Profit is unlikely every to come.
The same is true for the others. Only Netflix is making money. In spite of not getting the top notch content like a decade ago, they still have the first mover advantage. They are also bringing out a few shows that do keep people coming back.
Streaming Deaths
You wonder how long the executives at these companies will keep chasing this fantasy.
Anyone who is looking at this objectively is seeing how this is a bad deal for the consumer. The number of apps (and payments) one has to carry is getting insane. We are seeing monthly costs rivaling cable, something that was suppose to be eliminated by cutting the cord.
With so much money going out, you would think people are filled with choices. Sadly, the content itself is of poor quality. The major studios are not putting out the hit television shows. This is a major blow to their services.
In the end, one widespread recession and the cancellations will be across the board.
It is likely we see most of these studios toss in the towel within the next 5 years. While streaming isnt going away, it will likely only have one or two players at the end of the decade. It simply is not profitable going direct.
Web3
The major oasis in this could be web3. Here we have a new medium entirely emerging.
It is also likely the epicenter for advancement in technology and all the facet of artificial intelligence.
Content distribution is at the core of what is being discussed. The next leg will affect content creation What happens when feature length films are generated on a few laptops using software? This means that eyeballs could move further away from these traditional companies.
All of this is a major war. Whatever the genre, it is all merging.
Where are people spending their time?
Of course, there is one advantage that web3 can offer: incentivization.
The ability to tokenize a project opens up enormous opportunities. What if the viewers (fans) actually has a piece of the production? Could we tokenize these projects in such a way that viewers are stakeholders, increasing the chance they watch the film?
I believe it will happen.
So far, there is no experimentation in that area. However, we are seeing alternatives popping up all over the place. The first major player was YouTube. While that still have the lion's share of the social video market, we are also happening upon a time when other platforms are gaining traction.
All of this leads to further thinning of the consumer base. Content consumers are being presented with many choices. It ultimately comes down to where one is spending his or her time.
An hour away from traditional broadcast media and the major studios is an hour focused elsewhere.
The pay model is going to die. We are embarking upon a new paradigm. While it is difficult to see how it will be done, there is going to be a day when people are paid to consume the content.
Ultimately the value is in the eyeballs. At some point the consumer is going to say "pay me".
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They're all screwed with websites like this out there. I stopped paying for streaming apps long ago and now have access to all of them & can pay in BTC once ever two years. Can't beat it.
I need this in my life.
Try it out. It will let you use it for free if you only plan to watch the new stuff. Older stuff is locked behind a paywall, but an affordable one compared to other streaming services. Plus you also have to worry about the servers occasionally being full when you are a free user. Still you can test it to see how you like it.
There are many things showing up.
The truth is an income, I left some channels aside because my pocket was already affected and I do believe that some channels will disappear, since some have more quality than others or one identifies more with the programming.
Cost is a huge factor and they keep rising.
The value isnt there for people.
Several weeks ago, when responding to a ChatGPT post (I think) I offered an idea of how content creators could try to stay relevant by offering an AI service that allows the customer to input criteria to customize their favorite shows. So only Disneybot can legally produce content for the Mandalorian, etc., and the customer can access that bot via tiered subscription, gaining greater access to content and customization at higher payment plans. Disney can share that content rather than producing it themselves, offering discounts or bonuses to those who create the best content. And so it begins...
Although, I don't know how they will be able to ensure only their AI is creating copywritten content, unless they just don't have to in the beginning. Most customers will likely continue to try to maintain a subscription, rather than find illegal workarounds, until the cost rises so high it's cheaper &/or less trouble to pirate.
Having said that, though, if they gamify customer-based content creation they could basically have millions of people competing to create the best content just to earn Disney points, or whatever other useless badge or trinket, that one can use to ascend to a higher subscription tier where they can access higher customization, to create better content for Disney, at which point the universe implodes, blasting out a constellation of Mickey Mouse holding up the finger to the cold, dark void that used to be everything.
Just speculating for the shits & giggles, but I'm curious to see how this goes. A lot of exciting changes are coming.
Edit to add: This off the top of my head example is also a keen way for web 3/3.0 to begin to take root. Disney creates a token on a blockchain, incorporates a social media aspect, and just like that everyone is earning through one incentive or another.
There is potential for what you describe.
Content creation is going change completely. How that looks is still undetermined.
Companies can follow what you designed here. It could be the future. What about the idea that AI creates the outcome each individual wants? This could be personalized.
I'm literally only paying for a single streaming service (NBC/Peacock) because they have the rights to English Premier League soccer here in the US. My sister pays for Paramount (CBS for Champions League soccer) and we share logins. Luckily, I get Disney+ and ESPN+ for free through my mobile plan with Verizon. My mom shares an HBO login for her children. Ironically, Netflix is one of the only streaming services I have turned my back on since they raised rates and cut off the multi-location logins. I don't pay for any other subscription services.
I love the idea of crowd-funded movie productions. We can already see that happening in the music space in Web3 via companies like SoundXYZ that have methods to tokenize song ownership and royalty rights. I think all paid media could go this way: music, TV, movies, etc. I'd much prefer decentralized crowd-funded projects then continue to be subjected to whatever Universal, Sony, and Warner want to bankroll.
There is enormous potential.
What I find of great interest is a number of technologies coming together to disrupt things.
Consider the idea of a DAO funding a feature film that is generated almost exclusively by software.
That is just a couple of options.
Interesting. I didn't even consider the potential of the film generated by software / AI> I just took for granted that these film would use legacy technology to produce them. I guess this is especially true for documentaries that center around footage libraries and voice-overs that could leverage AI technology easily.
Content creation is going to be disrupted by technology in the same way the Internet disrupted content distribution.
In a decade or more, it will be completely different.