Texas As A Standalone Country
With the conflict between Texas and the Biden Administration, we could be moving towards an escalation. Without getting into the politics, there is one major question we need to ask:
Can Texas Exist As A Standalone Country?
After having Brexit, rumblings of Italexit, there is talk of Texit.
While we are a long way from this decision, it is worthy to take a look at what Texas has going for it if the move was decided to be undertaken.
The Numbers In Favor
Texas has a lot going for it. Actually, when it comes to a discussion like this, it is the one state in position to pull it off.
The economy is the second largest in the U.S., trailing only California. With a GDP of around $2.5 trillion, the state would place 8th in the world if it was a standalone country. This puts it ahead of Mexico, Spain, Russia, and Australia.
In other words, the state has a lot of economic might. Since the U.S. economy is around $27 trillion, this is a sizeable chunk.
Texas also has the population. They are number 2, once again only trailing California. Some are projecting the former will pass the latter by 2045. Source
The state military is one of the largest in the country, with 115,000 troops. It also have 15 US military bases among the 24 federal installations. Source
Obviously, if there was a succession, we would see those become property of the new nation.
Its The Oil Stupid
This is a spin on the old James Carville line.
When we look at the production of US oil, according to the EIA, this is what we come up with:
Texas does more than the rest of the chart combined. This would be a serious issue for the rest of the United States if Texas suddenly stopped shipping. Energy independence immediately goes out the window.
Speaking of cutting off, Texas ports process more cargo than any other state in the nation, including California. This means that in addition to have the most airports, cargo would be hindered if this pathway was eliminated.
Another advantage Texas has it the electricity network is not part of the national grid. Every other state depends upon the major hubs that are set up. With Texas, their electricity transmission does not cross state lines, hence no federal authority.
Texas Standing Alone
Texas is in a unique position. It has a degree of independence due to it infrastructure and economic climate. Houston is a thriving city because it is a hotbed for many different industries including finance, energy, and aerospace. It is also a cargo center for ship, rail, and trucking.
Centralization is always resisted. Over the course of this decade, we are seeing confidence in government wane. This is mostly at the national level although it is likely going to happen with most governments. That said, when centralized entities start to exert their will, they are met with resistance.
The legalities of whether Texas could secede would be hotly debated. Of course, the idea of secession is that you are not asking permission from the one you are trying to leave. There would be conflict yet Texas would come to the table with a fairly strong hand.
California and Texas, when it comes to population and GDP are both massive. If California was its own country, it would have the 5th largest economy, not far behind Germany. These are two enormous economic centers which exert a great deal of influence.
With Texas, the size, natural resources, and location make a very powerful entity.
Not that it will come to it, but from an infrastructure and economic standpoint, Texas could stand on its own. In fact, it would be one of the larger economies in the world.
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I think it’s wild and irresponsible for Texas to be pulling this stunt.
Why's that?
There is freedom in independent, if Texas want to from there own country it is a good thing but did they have the enough requirements to do so it takes beyond having resources and money to do so. Is the intellectual skills, cooperation and unity available?
Cant answer that since I am not there. I have no idea what the feeling is among the population.
They have the industry, education skills, and abilities. Their economy didnt get to where it is because they are lacking. It would be one of the larger (and likely stronger) first world nations if they went on their own.
Texas has all of those. In order of priority, most Texans have God, Family, Texas, and then country. Texans are prouder of being Texan than being American.
LOL! Get real. It would implode within a decade is my guess.
"From 2000 to 2015, federal funds comprised between 29.9 and 40.8 percent of all Texas state revenue, and averaged about 34 percent (Exhibit 2). The federal share in all states tends to rise during recessionary periods and decline in better economic times. In each year of the period, however, Texas’ reliance on federal funds was higher than the average among states."
Straight from the horse's mouth here: https://comptroller.texas.gov/economy/fiscal-notes/2017/november/federal-funding.php
How much do the Feds take out of the state of Texas in taxes, fees, and other programs.? Just the income taxes alone would likely cover that.
Good question. A quick internet search says 261 billion in taxes for 2017. I seriously doubt that they are giving back as much as they receive.
The state talks big and sure it has plenty going for it... but it also has an atrociously high violent crime, incarceration and poverty rate as well as a super low education level.
Cut all that federal food assistance program money off as well as the farm subsidy money and what are they gonna do?
And I would guess a lot of that money was for education and healthcare, two areas where the Feds control and inflate everything.
I dunno they have pretty low levels of both health care and education.
Looking at the map, you'll see that Texas also has about half of the USA's complete border with Mexico. Import/Export is a large part of the Texas economy.
Also, Texas is geographically at about the same latitude as Florida, which means longer growing seasons.
As far as the military goes, Texas, like other states, has the National Guard and Reserves. However Texas also has the Texas State Guard, which is a military organization that only answers to the Governor of Texas.
And, Texas is required to maintain a balanced budget. Although federal programs are a source of revenue that the state would have to forego.
If it did come to something like this, would Texas even have to stand alone? It's possible other states would join with Texas.
The idea of Texas becoming and independent state is like a mixed feelings to me, USA has its pride because of the resources they have and the history which I feel might break apart if this happens. Sometimes ago in Nigeria, things like this also happens and some states were trying to be independent but in the long run it didn't workout because it will endup tearing them apart.
With the statistics you are making here, Texas is indeed worth a stand alone country. Never knew it was still strong and having a huge role in the US financial sector. I must say this state is a power house. The question remains how easy and possible the stand alone can be?
I've heard talk about Texas leaving the US for a long time. I live in Texas, and have for over 35 years (I grew up in Wisconsin, then moved to Illinois, then Ohio, and finally Texas). Almost since the time I moved to Texas, there have been people talking about succeeding from the union. So this is nothing new. Every so often talk gets bigger, then dies down again.
Will it happen? I don't think there are enough people/power behind it right now, but that can change (and I know it can happen rather quickly - you've seen how quickly people gave up their right to keep their business open during the COVID "scare").
Once everyone hears how much the share of the national debt would belong to Texas, and that it would have to be repaid, well, that would cause people to reconsider. I don't think Texas would want to pay that, and I don't think Texas (as a whole) would like a war (though I'm sure some would welcome it).
Texas is the only state I've lived in that I don't want to leave.