Longevity Escape Velocity: How Close Are We To Longevity?

Futurists like to discuss the idea of infinite life extension. There term longevity escape velocity is often uttered in these circles. It is the hope that technology will solve the aging problem allowing humans to live a lot longer.

So what is longevity escape velocity?

Simply put, it is the concept that the average live expectancy will increase by greater than a year for each year that passes.

This means that, if the pace is 1.2 years, after a decade, the average age would be up 12 years.

Certainly, this is something that should be of interest to most. The question is how realistic is it and, even more importantly, are we close to longevity?

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Aubrey de Grey

Probably the most noted expert in this field, along with David Sinclair, is Aubrey de Grey. The microbiologist spent a number of decades researching some of the fundamentals of aging.

His approach is rather simple: identify those things that require fixing until we advance enough to truly extend things.

In other words, the belief is that we should develop therapies that target different forms of metabolic damage and reverse that. This is akin to changing out parts in a car. While we never end up with a totally new vehicles, many of the essentials are replaced over time.

This is done with rejuvenation therapies as opposed to surgical replacements. de Grey focuses upon research that is fundamental to the cause. His non-profit lab is doing the heavy lifting to allow other entities to develop the specific therapies.

As of today, we are still a long way from this becoming a reality.

2036: The Breakthrough

While we are dealing with a lot of uncertainty, de Grey was willing to put out a forecast. This is an odds based prediction with the barometer being 50/50. Thus, we have to keep in mind we are basically talking about a coin toss.

Nevertheless, de Grey stated we could have achieve longevity escape velocity by 2036.

He believes that could be the time when research will advance things to the point, and therapies developed which made a difference.

Of course, the flip side is there is an equal (if not greater) chance of this not being the case. In fact, many feel this is all nonsense and the quest for immortality (not de Grey's goal) is foolish.

Humans Like A Corporation

One of the characteristics of a corporation is that it can extend long past the life of the founder. We know that Ford is still going strong today even though Henry Ford died almost 80 years ago. The same is true for the different tentacles of Standard Oil. There is no need for John D. Rockefeller.

What if humans become like a corporation in the sense that the average life span is no longer a consideration? Consider all the economic implications on society.

Even getting the life expectancy up to 120, the believed biological threshold of human life, would cause massive societal unrest.

To start, what is the point of retiring at 65 if people are living, on average, another half century? The ability to sustain people for that long would be rather difficult.

Of course, individuals would have more time to let their investments build, enjoying the benefits of compounding for a few extra decades. This could offset a lot of the issues that come from longer life spans.

Another consideration would be medical expenses. While these therapies will not be cheap, could they replace a lot of the expense associated with the medical system today? Sickcare, which most of the developed world operates under, is growing less sustainable by the year. Some are calling it the medical industrial complex where the focus is not curing but treating, hopefully over a long period of time. This becomes a major money maker.

Technology: A Double-Edge Sword

While it might be great to think of the average lifespan being extended, there are issues with it. Technology is likely to replace a lot of jobs so having an older population isn't the end of the world.

There is another factor that is crucial: replacement.

It might be great to replace the broke down parts but who is going to ultimately replace us. As populations get older, they tend to have fewer children. We might see a solution come from the scientific community but that is also far from certain.

How it all unfolds is varied. We can forecast much of this in hundreds of ways. What is certain is that technology is going to change society in ways we never imagined. It is likely that we see more advancement in the next 20 years which usurps what occurred over the last 50 (or more).

Does this mean we will hit Longevity Escape Velocity? Some believe we could see this in the next 20 years. Others are far less optimistic.

It is likely we are moving closer yet still could be many decades away.

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