Hollywood Is Dying And Will Not Recover
Hollywood is in a death spiral from which it will not recover.
While we can point to the writers' strike (followed by the actors), this goes much deeper. It also brewing for a long time.
The biggest problem is that box office attendance is down 25%. In spite of a rise in ticket prices, the revenue is down 18%. This since 2018.
Even with the mega blockbusters of Barbie and Oppenheimer this Summer is not saving the industry. It is a dying animal and most have no idea why.
In this article we will discuss the reasons behind it.
Streaming Scam
Investors we conned into the idea that streaming would be the Golden Goose.
The business model is to pay large fees for content and give it away in an effort to gain subs. Then, over time, raise the price and hope people keep paying.
One of the major challenges is the fact that the streaming is eats into broadcast money. We covered this with Disney and ESPN.
It is interesting that one of the arguments posed by the unions is that the streaming numbers are not put out. This is true. What is overlooked is why?
The reason is simple: they stink.
If the numbers were good, these companies would be touted every streaming metric they could.
After all, we know that Elon Musk is promoting the number of hours people spend on Twitter. YouTube's numbers are out there for people to see. Yet, how many episodes of the Witcher were watched by the average person is not available.
We can bet the ranch that if they were good, these companies would be screaming them from the Hollywood sign.
Of course, it doesnt help that customers are starting to clue into this.
Which brings us to the next issue.
Garbage Content
This could be a matter of opinion but the online responses seem to back it up.
Hollywood is putting out garbage. There are a few gems here and there yet for the most part, it is trash.
Disney, which we covered a great deal, has produced a number of losers this year. They destroyed a couple major companies since they purchased them. This is costing them a fortune and forcing some very hard decisions.
It is also something that is not new.
If we look at the lists of top films of all time, how many were created post 2000? There are only a couple that can be considered to be on those lists. This is made worse by the fact that the number of films produced each year have skyrocketed.
Going Broke
The reality of the situation is Hollywood is going broke. This is something that few will admit.
Estimates are this strike is costing $150 million per week. The writers strike is already longer than the last one, with no end in site. What is ironic is few seem to care now.
This highlights the crux of the problem: people have other options.
YouTube video uploads are still strong. People are sharing videos daily on Facebook and Twitter. Web 3.0 is growing each day with time spent on those platforms.
All of this is going to keep hurting the industry. Forecasts of these strikes costing $3 billion now appear to be way too low. All the while, box office releases are bombing.
We also have the steaming networks losing subscribers. Disney announced a huge drop. Netflix is holding strong and might be the lone survivor. Of course, we cannot overlook the landmines that company has before it.
Technology Is The Knife In The Chest
These problems are small in comparison to the elephant in the room: technology.
Generative AI is impressive and improving on a consistent basis. This is going to be a big blow to Hollywood.
Blockbuster could not survive the Internet. This altered the distribution of content. It did not affect, however, the creation of it.
AI is going to change this in the next 5 years. We are going to see software writing scripts, creating images, and generating videos. This is going to create a new generation of stars, none of whom are human.
Certain industries are doomed, mostly due to technology. Others were putting themselves in a bad position and technology is killing them off.
I would say Hollywood is in this situation.
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Actor will pivot back to theather plays.
Good riddance to them in so many ways. Their content is shit particularly of late. The “actors” then use their platforms to promote some twisted fucking shit on the rest of the world. It’s an evil cult on so many levels and I’m not going to be sad to see it in the spiral. The people who work in it, the average people, those who I feel bad for. The unscrupulous ones not in the least.
It’s also comical how so many people see how at the end of the day no one needs or wants those fake talk show hosts and other propaganda BS since the strike took them off the air. They’ve gone all in, now let’s see how it shakes out and who’s left to pick up some pieces.
It seems like they are going to have a rough road ahead.
Content creation is being automated. We will see how quickly it hits them.
I've had this on my mind for a gew days, and I agree, but I also think see ways of delaying it I think will be a lot of fun. I'm a fan of The Mandalorian, and that constitutes most of the reason I may subscribe to Disney once or twice a year. If Disney gave me an option to use AI to "pick my own adventure", for each episode, buy a premium weapons package, or extra settings from the Star Wars universe, or even choose different actors to play the roles, I'd be inclined to be a more regular subscriber.
Add to that a YouTube experience that allows others to subscribe to your channel and Web 2.0 holds out for another year or two.
#technology tends to not appear to be a threat and then, suddenly, it is all over the place.