US tax receipts were down in 2023 compared to 2022

Here's the graph from the Federal Reserve:

source

Tax receipts in the third quarter of 2023 were $2.803 trillion. That's down compared to the $3.131 trillion received in the third quarter of 2022.

Which is odd considering the statistics agencies have estimated that the US is growing very fast. They reported an annualised growth of 4.9% growth in Q3 2023 and an annualised 3.3% in Q4 2023.

Given how much tax is automatically deducted from payrolls, in a strong economy tax receipts should be up.

The UK is experiencing the opposite phenomenon - their statistics agency reported a flat economy in Q3 2023 (0% growth), but tax receipts are pouring into the Treasury, significantly more than in 2022, which surprised economists.

Tax is not an estimate; it's actual dollars and cents and pounds and pence received. What's more, people hate paying it and try not to overpay.

GDP calculations are an estimate of the economy, which is why they frequently get revised when the statistics agencies realise they overlooked something.

It's possible the US agencies are over-estimating GDP. It's election year, perhaps they're trying to create a feel-good narrative? It's election year in the UK too, but the British statistics bods are notoriously pessimistic. They often release statements revising previous years GDP up, by which time no-one cares so it barely gets reported.