The rise in the US monetary base points to inflation rising again

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Monetarists believe inflation is a function of the quantity of money in circulation (the monetary base) and the velocity of money (how fast that money moves through the economy).

If both the monetary base and velocity are rising, you get inflation. If both are falling you get deflation. If one is rising but the other is falling, you get flat prices. Unemployment usually causes velocity to fall, as in the great financial crisis.

What caused the post pandemic inflation was low unemployment (hence high velocity) combined with money printing which expanded the monetary base. You can deal with it by causing unemployment (to lower velocity) or by shrinking the monetary base.

The Fed opted for the second option. But now the monetary base is rising again. Here's the graph:


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It's not clear why the Fed is allowing this to happen. But we know the stock market loves an expanding monetary base, and it's election year...



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