Potential Man Utd Takeover Financial Opportunity

There seems to be a takeover wave in the English Premier League recently and that's probably to be expected given the way Man City has changed the financial dynamic needed to be competitive. Ordinary billionaires can't compete with nation states flushed with oil and gas money.

Comparable Transactions

The recent Chelsea takeover for 4.5 billion pounds has re-priced the takeover price for subsequent clubs. Man City was acquired for only 200 million, Liverpool for 300 million, Arsenal for 450 million and Newcastle for 300 million pounds.

Then you have to factor in that in the earlier acquisitions, apart from Liverpool and Arsenal, the rest of the clubs don't have much of an international fan base and weren't competing for Europe's top prizes.

Manchester United Bottoms Up

Manchester United are the third biggest club in the world going by the number of fans worldwide. They are also competing in the Champion's League and have that sweet Champion's League TV revenue.

The reality for the club is that they can't compete against Man City with their current manager and squad. So unless the owners intend to coast on the clubs history and devalue the brand, their best option is to sell.

Man Utd fans also want the current Glazer family owners out and are staging protests. The last time this happened with Liverpool's owners, they were forced to sell after two years.

The Offer

The current best offer on the table is a 5 million pound takeover which is a 37.5% premium over the current price. If the bidder were to match the 6 million pound demand of the owners, it would be a 75% premium over the current price.

Man Utd is the crown jewel in English football and it is unlikely to be sold for less than 4.5 million pounds which puts a floor on the price in my opinion. I'm going to be playing this merger opportunity and see how it plays out in the next couple of months.