I'd Rather See Blood in the Strets Than Boredom After a While
Boredom is... tiring after a while.
It may be a good period to accumulate, but the longer it goes the more people who started with the intention of accumulating through this period get... you guessed it... bored, and start to find other activities to keep their minds occupied, take longer and longer breaks, plan and go on vacations, etc.
The good thing is that those who make it through to the other end without capitulating are probably better prepared for the intense good times that follow, and which are always shorter than the bad times, at least in terms of crypto cycles.
The interesting part is that accumulating though the boring period may not be as profitable as buying entirely when there is blood in the streets (close to the bottom, if anyone can guess where that is), but if it happens consistently it can be, because the emotional factor is removed from the equation.
During a bloodbath, even if someone has certain entry levels already set up, there are often thoughts circling the investor whether the levels are right or if they are too low, and the fall won't be as severe, or too high, and the entry point could have been chosen lower.
But still, compared to a prolonged boredom, I'd rather see some market action, even if that means a bloodbath. In a phase like this one in the crypto market, I wouldn't want to see a bloodbath followed by a consolidation at the lower level though. If it's still a range, we're all good.
I started to think today what kind of markets I prefer. I am a bull, like most people, so bull market is my favorite.
But then, things become more complicated. I like the sharp drop from the roof tops after the bull market blows up because it deflates the hype and clears the weed in crypto. I also like the accumulation phase up to a point because it is suitable for consistent people and it puts more pressure on bad businesses. But I still prefer to see some market action every once in a while to test if we still have a pulse or not. :D If the sideways movements are too long while we are not out of the bear, this can affect good businesses too, and that's another reason not to like too long boredom,
At a self-analysis, I realized I don't get scared during crashes, but I may get over-excited during the last phase of a bull market. I also see that after a while I get tired of the boredom in markets, but that may be only an impression. After all, as long as I keep myself busy, I only remark "boredom" in the markets because I have the HIVE chart opened in a tab, waiting for entry points.
When I have to pay extra attention and have rules I won't break because "I know better" or "I have a feeling" or "others have the same opinion" is during the bull market. So far I haven't negotiated a bull market correctly. I improved during the last one, but not what I would consider acceptable planning and execution.
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What would you say a bloodbath is? Catching falling knives? Buying the dip? OR should we wait for new trends before entering?
I believe the threshold is not the same for different people and for distinct times in the cycle. Many could see what we had today as a bloodbath (-10%+ at some point, on +100% 24h volume compared to yesterday). I don't think so because we are still in-range with bitcoin.
That's not a good idea, especially with big amounts, but if someone thinks of this as a buy opportunity because bitcoin is still in range, then he/she might act and be correct. As always, alts overreact.
That's rarely a good idea except for traders.
That's the safest option, but also trailing, and one may lose good entry points.
Thanks Adrian, good points. Is it me, or is Bitcoin becoming less and less volatile over time?
A quick check of the BVI confirms the trend actually.
That's likely to continue with the institutional money entering bitcoin. They prefer it less volatile. Certainly not with 15-25%+ intraday swings as we had in the past. Even these 10%+ price changes will become a rarity. But over time, a trend can have exactly the same effect or higher, only not so unexpectedly.
Interesting perspective.
Maybe... It's certainly personal.
Best time to buy is when no one else wants to buy.
When there are still so many people calling “buy the dip” and they still have the money to do so, that is far from capitulation.
Make sense! Both your points. I started to dislike the "buy the dip" expression since it's one because of which many newcomers lose money in crypto and some of them turn back to fiat convinced crypto is a scam.
You have a plan and that is good. A lot of people don't and I kind of prefer the boring sideways market. It means that I can focus on other things.
That you can do. But when this period extends far too long, it affects good businesses in crypto too (example: Splinterlands).
Well, I feel your idea is a good one!
I believe everyone should have a plan to stick to for both the bear market and the bull market.
It's definitely good to feel the pulse of the market every now and again. As an effect, investors become more awake :)
Too much boring-ness can be unproductive in many cases.
Exactly. Without any vertical movement in the market, investors become numb and likely to be unprepared when the market starts moving.
You are right @gadrian People must see it through if they are serious about all of this investing. What do you mean by the bloodbath? Barb 😊👍 ✨ !BBH !CTP #ctp
It's an expression. Kind of morbid, I know, lol. But similar to "blood in the streets". It is used when there is a big selloff and the price crashes, often "killing" (liquidating = total loss) some of the leveraged positions that were on the opposite side. That's why leveraging is one of the most risky things to do, and highly unrecommended unless used as a hedge against your main position to reduce the risk. Don't worry if you don't understand the leverage lingo. You are not supposed to, and it's better if you don't.
Thank you @gadrian I'm glad you are using the leverage lingo. I am learning more. I have sort of an idea. I use to do bookkeeping. What is the meaning of a hedge? Thank you. Have a great week ahead! !BBH !CTP 🌟😊🌟
I saw in a different comment that you figured out what hedge means. But for anyone else who might wonder and reads this, the definition can be found in Leoglossary, along with many others. Here it is.
OK @gadrian thank you because often I have to look things up a lot because there is so much. After a while I will always remember unless my blood sugar gets to low. Thanks for posting the Leoglossary link! !BBH !!CTP 🌟👍
Hi @gadrian Is Leofinance down for you? It's been down for me since last night!
I get an application error when I try to get leofinance.io or leo threads.
Do you still get that? It works for me. But I know it happens from time to time because they often build as we are using it and sometimes they break things and then they fix them.
I was able to get back in and it might be my nephew’s laptop not getting enough juice from the charger so I ordered a new charger.
I hope it helps. Yes I understand the breaking and fixing process of programming. I learned about that with owning adkreator😅
!BBH !CTP
Quite interesting Adrian. When the period gets too long it does not only clear out weeds from the crypto markets but does also affect good businesses.
Exactly. That's why good businesses have to be prepared for the bear market, but many underestimate its length and overestimate their income during the bear market.
The emotion during the bear market is easier to contain than the emotion during the bull market. At least, as far as myself is concerned.
To a degree, that's because you don't know where the top will be. While the bottom (as a percentage of drawback from the top) has been quite predictable.