An Exercise of Crypto Hype Guesstimates
I haven't done that publicly before. But I want to do these "guesstimates" for myself (I refuse to call them predictions) and come back to them after the bull market pops to see how many I nail. And if I am doing it anyway, I thought I'd better share and have some feedback from you too.
I don't have any scientific method of reaching these numbers, but I do take into consideration what history has shown us, where a long enough history helps us.
I will give in each case 3 guesstimates:
- pessimist
- realist
- optimist
where the "realist" guestimate is sort of a middle ground and the only range given.
Bitcoin
During the previous cycle, bitcoin price grew more than 11x from the start of the bull market to its end (that is if we consider the bull market started at 6k and not higher).
The question is: where will we consider the stat of bull market this cycle? Will it be 16.5k? Unless the crypto market turns worse the following months, that is most likely the starting point.
Now let's see my guesstimates for bitcoin:
- pessimist: max 82k (less than 5x)
- realist: 82k-116k (5-7x)
- optimist : 116k+ (7x+)
HIVE
HIVE is more volatile than bitcoin. Last cycle it went from almost 11 cents to 3.43 dollars, which means a 31x price appreciation. This cycle the range will be narrower, at least on the downside. We still don't know where HIVE will start the initial bull run at, but for the exercise purpose, I'll use the price from today: 27c.
We also don't know what kind of interest we will have for HBD during the bull market and if it will be on locked tiers or free to access like today. During the previous bull market we didn't have interest on HBD in savings, so this will play a role limiting the growth potential of HIVE during the hype period.
Now let's see my guesstimates for HIVE during the hype period:
- pessimist: max 2.16 (less than 8x)
- realist: 2.16-3.24 (8-12x)
- optimist : 3.24+ (12x+)
SPS
SPS doesn't have a cycle under its belt. It was born in the second phase of the last bull market. So there is no historical reference we can use. There were major tokenomics changes since its creation, so it's a wildcard regarding future evolution.
If new products launched by Splinterlands, and the renewed demand from the bull market, plus eventually the flywheel effect and the new utility added to SPS will have the combined effect to reverse price evolution for SPS, then it has a major potential. But my guesstimates in this case are simple guesses. I'll also use today's price as a starting point: 0,016.
Let's see my guesses for SPS during the hype period:
- pessimist: max 0,08 (less than 5x)
- realist: 0,08-0,24 (5-15x)
- optimist : 0.24+ (15x+)
LEO
Leo is another wildcard. With changes to tokenomics (less inflation), buy backs, more utility added to LEO all the time, and likely huge numbers of new users added in the future more than a year, and the continuous developments, there are lots of positive things to consider. The question is how much of them will translate to price action. The historical price evolution of the token is irrelevant, given all the changes.
Probably one of the things going on against it is that most of the tokens are staked, and there is not enough liquidity for any significant player to buy in.
Let's see my guesstimates for LEO during the hype period, starting from 0.035, the recent low):
- pessimist: max 0.35 (less than 10x)
- realist: 0.35-0.70 (10-20x)
- optimist : 0.70+ (20x+)
Care to share some "guesstimates" of your own or simply comment on those I shared?
None of these price levels and comments constitute investment advice.
Posted Using LeoFinance Alpha
Those are some conservative BTC guesstimates. Amazing that it is 7 months til the halving.
I was too optimistic last time and it wasn't good for me.
what were you guessing last time? :D
Like many, I was expecting for bitcoin to hit 100k, but I was ready to sell before that.
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I like your guesstimates and it would be nice to see them in reality... Even those pessimist numbers look great... 😃
I know that Bitcoin is usually the "slowest" crypto compared to altcoins, but its scarcity, and the bigger demand that will come, could make miracles... It is true that BTC makes less volatile moves with every next cycle, but I have a "guesstimate" that it could surprise us and do more than it did in the last cycle...
For the rest of the tokens that you listed, I would be more conservative and say that your pessimist numbers would be my optimist numbers... 🙂
If you are thinking about bidding the remaining bitcoin from the part of those with unlimited money, I don't think it will happen, but I admit I may be wrong. My thesis is it won't come until you and I and anyone like us will not have any or very little bitcoin. They will be patient and relieve more individuals of their holdings before they bid each other.
As for spot bitcoin ETFs, most likely they will work based on the fractional reserves principle and only hold a part of the spot bitcoin for the fiat investments in ETF shares.
Depending on how things evolve, I could be much more conservative too. But if we look at the chart of HIVE and when it exploded, it was a matter of days to go to its extremes. I bet very few would wait till that point to take profits, and they could wait too long...
Good targets!
Thanks. Well, we'll see how the market moves. Not exactly my targets, but I wanted to have some potential tops in mind. And from there, form a profit-taking plan on the way up.
@tipu curate
Upvoted 👌 (Mana: 55/75) Liquid rewards.
Thanks for your tip!
I think I would lean a bit more pessimist on the lower range. Even a 5x will be tough unless we can get more users and that is the hardest hurdle for Hive.
I didn't say that's sustainable. It can be hit and last a day or two at most. Most people won't wait that long to take profits, if that's what they want.
Nice guesstimates, let's see how it truly turn out
Thanks. Yeah, I'm curious too, because a lower start automatically changes the guesstimates in cases where I used today's price (HIVE and SPS) for example.
Good guesses, hope the market goes as expected
Thanks for your comment. We'll see.
No one can predict the current market conditions but from what we have seen you have shared a lot of good and knowledgeable things with us.
That is true, no one can predict the market. That's why I didn't call them predictions. :) I will be the first to admit these were wrong. And I believe not all of them will come true. Some already start from potentially false premises, the price at the start of the bull market.
Yeah you are right.
Hello, @gadrian this is very creative of you to think up guesstimates 😊⭐⭐ Have a great rest of the weekend! I don't have any guesstimates 😆 Barb !BBH !CTP #ctp
The creative part is doing it before everyone else, lol. Just wait a while and you'll see most everyone will do it.
OK thank you @gadrian. I will wait and see 🌟😊👍 !BBH !CTP
Even the pessimist numbers are really good. I like to be on the safe side, and consider that as well. I'll just keep accumulating and hope for the best.
Consider the "pessimist" numbers are for the tops. Numbers few us will see if we take some profits.
The pessimistic sounds realistic than the realist. But let wait as the market unfold
Maybe. Quite hazardous for me to put out these numbers, especially since alts probably haven't finished their descent, at least this month. Maybe HIVE will be somewhat spared, due to Hivefest.
In my book, as far as BTC is concerned, the correction was completed in November last year and that to me was the start of the bull market.
Nah, I considered it since the beginning of the year. There was some room for consolidation at or near the bottom, and that isn't part of the bull market in my opinion.
But I read the opinion it started in March after crypto banks collapsed in the US. And others still consider we are in the bear market. In a way we still are, probably, but for alts.
I am basing my analysis on Elliot Wave Theory. Though it's a game of speculation and probability, still it provides a technical analyst who relies on EWT with a certain sense of market direction considered from a long-term perspective. Anyhow, this is just me.
BTC's Primary Motive Wave 1 started in 2017 and ended in November 2021. It was then followed by Primary Corrective Wave 2 from November 2021 to November 2022. What follows is Primary Motive Wave 3, which has five intermediate waves within it. BTC's price has just completed Intermediate Motive Wave 1 last June and is now undergoing an Intermediate Corrective Wave 2, which has three Minor Waves. Once this is done, we will see the formation of Intermediate Motive Wave 3 of Primary Motive Wave 3. That to me is a very powerful wave.
Primary Waves (both motive and corrective) - a few months to a couple of years
Intermediate Waves - weeks to months
Minor Waves - weeks
Thanks for elaborating your point of view based on Elliot Waves Theory.
Correction. The three minor waves should be labeled as A/B/C. I anticipate BTC to touch 18,642, the 61.8% Fibo retracement before it rallies. Again, just my wild guess.
I'm curious if that theory holds true. That would mean bitcoin toward, if not lower than 20k by the end of the last corrective wave.
Yeah, I expect a bounce and then another dip that would stop at 61.8% Fibo or close to that. It would take a few weeks and then I anticipate a continuation of the run that started in November 2022. They say a Wave 3 within a Wave 3 is a wonder to behold.
In the stock market, sometimes I got it correct; at other times, a pure guessing game. If that happens, back to the drawing board and that's the time to look for an alternative reading of the chart. I am not sure though how reliable TA is when it comes to crypto.
If TA would work as expected 100% or even 75% of the time, we all would be wealthy and they would probably redefine what wealth means. In the end, it's a matter of probabilities, and interpreting past price movements to draw conclusions about future ones. And then, something like FTX or UST collapses, or on the other side, Bitcoin ETFs are approved (when that happens), and TA doesn't help at all.
That's why a tactical investor I know would prefer to receive a hint from mass psychology instead, though not neglecting both FA and TA.
Yep, that is useful. A one of the tools in the toolbag. Probably not the main one.
https://twitter.com/lee19389/status/1700862258639687846
#hive #posh
Thanks.
Welcome
I really don't think anything can be predicted with any level of certainty. I like your "guesstimates" Hoping for the best possible in all the scenarios. I know that I am going to take some profit out of whatever I can when there is a bull market.
Well, some things can be predicted with a good level of certainty. For example, if a bull market starts, it won't end in 3 months. That's almost guaranteed, unless something like WW3 happens.
I guess so, huh? Didn't think of that.