Bitcoin is in the hands of the SEC, regulations or no regulations... For now
As seemingly the entire crypto world is eagerly waiting for the SEC ruling on all the Bitcoin ETFs that have been filed. It looks like the SEC actually is in control of Bitcoin, and without all the regulatory BS they want to impose on everyone and everything. Well at least for now. Let me explain what I mean.
The SEC speaks and Bitcoin answers
If you were paying attention to the price of Bitcoin today you most likely noticed the sudden drop it took seemingly out of nowhere. Where it dove from around $45.000 all the way down below $41.000.
Why was this? As it happened it was a report that was published by Matrixport, as far as I was able to dig. In it, they say that all ETF filings will be rejected in January, and maybe the SEC will change their mind with new filings come Q2 of 2024. And it was this that caused the sudden drop of ~10% in the Bitcoin price. A link to the summary of the post can be found at the end.
As far as I can tell there is no real substance to the claim the SEC will reject the ETF filings later this month. At least not in the summary. But what it does show is the power the SEC actually holds over Bitcoin. That a mere rumore a week before the SEC is expected to rule on the Bitcoin ETF applications can cause the price of Bitcoin to drop 10%. What then will happen to Bitcoin if the SEC actually denied the ETF applications? Will this cause Bitcoin to drop back down to around $20.000? Or will it drop even lower? Or have we perhaps seen exactly what will happen with an SEC rejection? Bitcoin will drop $4-5.000 in price, or around 10%.
All these scenarios are running around in my head yelling "Hey it's me, look at me!" at the top of their lungs. Trying to be the one who will look most likely. And what then if the ETF gets approved, is suddenly Samson Mow´s prediction of a $1.000.000 Bitcoin a reality? There seem to be too many unknown factors, at least for me, to compute around and be able to narrow down some future with any certainty for the yay or nay outcomes.
If you do want my thoughts on the no outcome, given the fact that the halving is fast approaching. I think that no matter how low Bitcoin will drop with a no from the SEC. The price will still have to come back up to around $39.000. The reason for that is fairly simple, that is around the price we will have as the cost to mint after the halving. If you want to read more on this topic you can find my previous post about it here. And if you want to read more about Samson Mow and why he is predicting a yes will push Bitcoin to $1.000.000 you can find my post on that topic here.
I hope that you found this post useful, and I would also love to hear what your thoughts are on the Bitcoin ETF situation. How do you think a yes or no will impact Bitcoin, and the rest of the crypto market for that matter? Please let me know in the comment section below. And I hope you have had a great holiday!
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Everyone waiting for a sell the news event and to stack cheaper sats. It will be interesting if we see sub 40k BTC!
Definitely, for me I was leaning towards a yes, but now it is probably 50/50 so I have no idea
I think a no from the SEC will drive down the price of BTC more than most will expect. It could be intentional too, giving institutional investors another opportunity to buy cheaper.
That can definitely be part of the long game for sure.