Time Line For Crypto Cycle Peak
The only difference today is the numbers in crypto are getting bigger plus the investors coming into crypto are professionals.
Over the last few weeks I have seen a few posts on social media and a few on Hive where they discuss the crypto cycle and when to expect the peak (ATH). Some are calling for the all time high's this year and planning their exit strategies, but I do think 2024 and not 2025 is wishful thinking. This is not trying to sway you into thinking in any other way because this is something you need to make your mind up on and not listen to others.
This is so important to not mess up because selling too early is nearly just as bad as missing the peak. No one can time the ATH exactly, but selling months too soon would be bonkers and foolish. Once you are out you are out because buying back in again would just be even dumber than cashing out too soon.
The narrative I am hearing is that the prices we will see later this year will be so high these will be unsustainable and the Bear market will kick in. Funny that because the institutions with heir Bitcoin ETF's have not even started buying and has been proven the bulk of the sales till now have been by the "dumb money" you and I the retail investors. This narrative we are hearing could also be used to force those into selling and living up to the term of dumb money.
In crypto they say history repeats itself and it is not ever exact, but is similar so let us look at the previous ATH's of when they were achieved in reflection to the Bitcoin halving.
In 2012 the Bitcoin halving took place on the 28th November and the AH of that cycle was 1 year and 1 day later on the 29th November 2013. 2016 saw the Bitcoin halving happen on July 9th with the ATH of that cycle taking place on December 18th 2017. This is a total of 527 days being the gap from halving to the Bitcoin ATH. @020 the halving happened on May 20th with the ATH on November 10th 2021 which is 539 days apart.
Now just think for a moment and why would Bitcoin suddenly change from a period of 366 days o 530 days suddenly to 180 days? Yes there will be far more money flowing into crypto than what we have seen before and most of that money is for holding their Bitcoin and not for selling.
The last cycle we were sold a story about a super cycle due to how much money was flowing into crypto and this never materialised. This kind of over complicated the thinking process and I think this new narrative of the peak of the cycle happening this year is more of this over complicated thinking nonsense.
The truth is no one knows and why you yourself need to work this out for yourself. I have my thoughts and it definitely does not include 2024 for selling expecting a bear cycle anytime soon.
I highlighted in a post last week how volatile this period leading up to the blow off peak is and the alt coin example had 19 major dips with 3 of those dips above 70%. That was a time line between April 2020 and November 2021 so we are guaranteed to be tested over the next 12-18 months whatever happens nd that is where personally I am targeting the peak.
I just read a story about a guy that bought a meme coin for $5000. Sold it for $7000. If he had held, he would have $12M. Definitely best to just wait it out.
Which Coin was that? Just curious.
WIF maybe.
You are completely right, people that are starting with FOMO regarding their exit/cash out is way to early these days. I did the same research as you and found the same. We can expect the Top of this cycle most likely somewhere between Q1 and Q3 next year (2025).
Personally I won’t sell anything this year unless I have seen at least a 10x. Then maybe partial sell.