Belgian League Season 2023-2024 Preview
2023-2024 Betting Strategy
So the basics will be pretty much the same as I plan to make previews on every match and also watch them all which should keep me up to date with what is happening helping me put good value on teams and matchups. The main difference is that I am going to try to get my stakes up. Last season, my average unit size was too low mainly because of limits as on bets with bigger value it was harder to get enough money in while those with higher limits generally has smaller edges which made me take those smaller in relation to the bigger edge bets.
So I will try to somewhat throw this out of the window and act contra-intuitive. This means that bigger stakes on some bets won't always mean they have a bigger edge. I'm doing all these previews purely for myself to stay disciplined and not for anyone to follow let along sell picks. So if you follow, don't do it blindly and start from your own handicapping with what I provide just as info.
My main bookie/Broker will once again be Sportmarket Pro which is the only thing I really need to 'make a living' as they provide the best odds from different Asian Bookies and exchanges and don't limit winning players. If anything I can highly recommend them to everyone who actually tries to be profitable in betting and never had an issue in over a decade using them!
I will also try to increase my Crypto betting activity as more options are becoming available all the time. I plan on making an article with all the different platforms that I use along with some basic info. In the end, these bets will remain just a little bit extra on top of what I take with my main broker. For the 2022-2023 results check this post [Link]
Crypto & Blockchain-Based Bookies and Exchanges that I'm personally using with some allowing anonymous betting with no KYC or personal restrictions...
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IMPORTANT: Past results don't guarantee Future Results. Even though I never had a losing season so far handicapping, it only is a matter of time before it comes I would say even though I keep doing what I can to avoid it and make it into another great year.
2023-2024 Preview
This is how I am ranking the teams right now and I won't hesitate to adjust my opinion on a week-to-week basis when I have more info available. This season there are only 16 teams again which means8 matches instead of 9 during a weekend. There will always be 1 match on Friday, 3 on Saturday (instead of 4) and 4 on Sunday. All matches will be played seperately so I'm able to watch and cover them live on the SBC Discord aside from the 2 last Sunday matches where 1 half overlaps which actually is not a bad thing as the fatigue usually hits at that time.
- Place 1-4: Club Brugge | Antwerp | Genk | AA Gent
Club Brugge: They didn't have the best season but still should be in a spot with the best resources and a quality team to be the favorite for the title. Right now it doesn't look like they are fully ready yet and it also wouldn't be a massive surprise if they don't get back to the form they had a couple of years ago.
Antwerp: They are the current champion with plenty of quality and a play style that mainly is solid not taking any defensive risks. Last season they went all in on expensive players but this seems to have shifted to attracting more young players in order to become profitable and self-sustainable. This along with the fact that they also will play in Europe will cost them points. Given their style though they should be able to take many narrow wins.
Racing Genk: So far they haven't been weakened all too much but still lack a scoring striker after Onuachu left them. Expect a style playing forward going for it while they are not without flaws defensively. So attractive matches with Genk to win & Both to score should be a thing. Last season they didn't have European football so this will also weigh on them.
AA Gent: They also haven't really been weakened and are actually stronger now I would say even though Gift Orban likely will still leave. They also no longer have financial issues as they were taken over by an investor. Last season they gambled on a small squad but the many matches (they were ranked 2nd or 3rd in European teams with most matches played) caused too many injuries. I do expect good things from AA Gent and similar to Genk attractive matches with often plenty of goals.
- Place 5-8: Anderlecht | Union | Cercle Brugge | Charleroi
Anderlecht: They had their worst season in a long time finishing just 11th and their problems likely won't be solved yet. The general problem remains a lack of funds and not enough quality to be a top team. However, this season they won't play in Europe which reduces fatigue and increases focus which should help them. I expect difficult matches against Top Teams and better matches against weaker teams as they really will need to win those matches. So another difficult season for Anderlecht but I can see them sneak inside of the top 6 due to a soft schadule.
Union: They have been the revelation in the 2 past season since they got back in 1st division but this time around they simply lost too much quality which hasn't been replaced. Their problem remains that they have a very tight Salary strategy which makes they rely on their scouting scooping up cheap players that are way better than their cost. They worked wonders with this so far but I fear too many need to be replaced now. Teuma, Adingra, Boniface, Van Der Heyden, Azzouzi, Kandouss, Vertessen all need to be replaced. I do still see them as a solid realistic side with a good team spirit but I would be highly surprised to see them fighting at the top again. Sneaking inside the top 6 seems the highest possible but I also don't exclude that they have a way more difficult time. They might be valued too much on previous seasons early on so opposing them is something that I will keep in mind.
Cercle Brugge: I see Cercle Brugge as one of the better mid-table teams right now especially if they can keep the players they have now. They already were valued quite high (too high) on the betting market near the end of last season and I fear this will be the same now making it hard to really bet on them. If I would have pick 1 team to surprisingly get inside Playoff 1 if for sure would be Cercle Brugge.
Charleroi: With Mazzu back at Charleroi, it can be expected for them to be a side that everyone hates to play against as he mostly just tries to break down their opponents to score once on the counter and lock things down. This style usually brings results but at the same time I don't see any exceptional quality for much more in this team right now.
- Place 9-12: OH Leuven | Westerlo | Standard | Stvv
OH Leuven: Leuven lost some quality with De Norre, Patris, Tamari for who they got plenty of funds and they still have quite a good team overall in that I would not be surprised if they were one of the revelations.
Westerlo: They did really well last season with an Excellent De Cuyper who went back to Club Brugge. They also lost Reynolds and Nene but seem to have done a good transfer with new Striker Frigan who I will be watching. This is another team where fun open matches can be expected especially at home. I would be surprised to see them fighting for a top 6 place but they should not get in trouble and be in the upper midfield.
Standard: Last season they ended 6th which was a massive accomplishment by coach Deila who left for Club Brugge as he knows that it will be hard to do much better in Standard. The general problem remains that there simply isn't enough quality and that they are no longer the top team they used to be mostly due to limited funds. Hoefkens is their new coach and he will have a really hard task this season. I don't see Standard as a team that will take easy wins even at home where they tend to get huge support. So I'm expecting multiple matches where they lose at the favorite unless the betting market really adjusts and another disappointing season.
Sint-Truiden: This team will be a big question mark as they pretty much start over with many players leaving and a new coach. Generally, they have done well but they might be better or worse compared to their average. The first weeks likely will give a lot of clarity.
- Place 13-16:
Mechelen: They had a bad season last year and I don't expect that much more this time as I see them lacking sheer quality. This showed already in the Super Cup. Last year they also lacked physical quality which was worked on. All transfers so far based on the stats and the money that was spent seem to be underwhelming. I do expect some matches especially at the start of the season at home where their willingness to fight and work gets them points but this will only get them that far.
Kv Kortrijk: I'm also not expecting much from Kortrijk who were weakened as Selemani left who was their best player and also Watanabe. Kadri also possibly will make a transfer. They ended just above relegation last season and I can't see them that much better right now.
Eupen: The same story with Eupen who saw some of their best players leave in Peeters, Prevljak, N'dri while they barely survived the relegation last season. So anything else than them being a bottom side would be a surprise this year.
RWDM: I never seen them play but from what I heard they lean more toward Seraing who had no chance as the promoted team last season compared to Union or Westerlo who promoted the years before. They main striker Hazard also picked up a long term injury but I will need to watch their matches to get a better grip.
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IMPORTANT !
Past results don't guarantee Future Results. There are very few people that are equipped financially and psychologically to handle the ups and downs of gambling on a daily basis. If you're not a professional, every instinct you have will attempt and probably will sabotage your success. Human nature runs completely contrary to being successful at gambling. These bets are posted as a way to help myself in order to stay disciplined, always hold yourself accountable if you end up following. Proper Bankroll Management can highly decrease the risk of heavy losses!Posted using SportsTalkSocial