First Bull Run, First Mistake

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The jury is kind of out right now on whether or not we are still in a bull market. Many say we still are, some say we are not. Still others seem to think we are at the end of one and bear season is right around the corner.

It actually makes me think of the news story I saw the other day where a lady shoved a bear off of the wall in her back yard to protect her dogs. I wonder if someone has made a meme yet about that in regards to crypto. The bear could be the bear market and the dogs could be Doge and she is saying "back off bear market".

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There you go, thanks a ton imgflip. It probably makes more sense if you know the story behind the image

But I digress...

The main reason for this post is to talk about a big mistake I potentially already made in whatever this market is that we are going through right now. I wrote a post a couple of weeks ago about how I was able to get a little bit of a win when BTC was up around $60K and everything else was up as well. With that win my wife and I were able to pay off all of our remaining debt.

I should have known better than to rest on my laurels, because this is where I feel I may have made a significant misstep. Not paying off the debt, that was a really smart move, it is what I did with the other portion of my funds that might come back to bite me.

I will be honest and admit that up until now I never really understood the importance of stable coins. Sure I had heard about them and I think @revisesociology has written about them in his investing posts quite frequently. Despite that, it never really clicked with me.

Until recently. With the current drop in BTC price to the low $30k level and the subsequent drop of pretty much all the altcoins across the board, I am starting to realize just how important stable coins can be.

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Personally, I don't think this bull run is over. I think we are still in the middle of it and things will likely start to ramp back up before the end of the year. However, as I mentioned, I have absolutely zero experience to base that belief on.

In my heart I believe my assets will recover, but part of me wishes I would have moved some (or more) of that money into stable coins when the opportunity was more beneficial to me. Even if it would have been just a small percentage each week, I think it would have been a smart move.

Did you notice I said "or more" in parenthesis above? That is because I did in fact move some of my funds into BUSD, but then those funds were immediately paired with CUB and moved into the Cub DeFi farm. Since the price of CUB has dropped by close to 40% from when I made those moves, you can see it hasn't panned out quite to well for me so far.

I don't regret it, because I do believe the price of CUB will recover, but I do wish I had just left more of the funds as BUSD. It would have put me in a better position to buy some of the dips that we are seeing right now.

So there you go, moral of the story today...

Never underestimate the power of stable coins!

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My strategy is that when I do sell a coin, it will be converted into a stable coin. Mostly tether.
Then when the market goes up, I do convert it mostly into fiat and extract it back to the real world. Decreasing my overall investment.
When the market goes down, I do get the opportunity to get my sold coins back at a discount, leaving again some fiat behind to decrease my fiat investment.

So you did suffer FOMOOMP?

Cheers,
Peter

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Haha, yeah, I guess I do. I just need to be a little smarter next time I think. Like I said, I don't regret pulling some out and paying off debt. I just wish I had moved some of what I left there in to stables.

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that's us shaking hands, I know the feeling of not clicking with stable coins all too well.

First, the huge crash made me feel shit that I didn't take profits (just a small chunk to pay off a bit of debt first installment of my personal payback plan), second because of not being able to ride those waves while the crash lasted but there was huge opportunity to buy in.

Once a bit recovered, I decided to take profits quicker, not wait for the huge pumps every time, but make smaller trades in case I didn't want to part with a coin, to farm the amount of coins this way it was also going to end up being worth more. This was, after I had seen my complete remaining amount of debt vanish in crypto. It was a very expensive lesson! I could have cashed out part of the coins to pay it off completely, but I didn't want to part with those coins yet, so I didn't.

Now I'm at the point where I honestly don't care to part with all of them (besides the stakes) but trying to cash them in steps where it makes sense (read: no loss anymore and preferably a bit of nice profit). I will buy back in later after this has been paid off.

I did have a bag of tether waiting for the last dip, but I couldn't convince myself that it was the lowest low and decided not to touch them. I didn't want to see it vanish again and actually made peace with the lower (but more stable) portfolio value. Just days ago I started buying back some things and keeping a close eye on them before I cash them out at my target so that I made a bit more profit by waiting :)

I really really need to learn charting, it's on the to do list :) haha

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Wow, that sounds like it was a really rough patch. I am glad that you have mostly come to terms with it. I just need to remember to keep them on my radar. This pull back would have been much easier to manage if I had just moved even a little at a time. When I think of DCA I always think of it in terms of fiat, but it could be selling into stables too.

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Lol, trust me when I tell you I've been sick to my stomach knowing I only paid of a part, while I now saw the rest vanish. Let's say I paid for the experience :)

Whenever I think about DCA, I think about HOT and TEL, two coins I've been buying since they were so cheap, it was even worth just buying for a few bucks back then. I've been buying HOT for quite some time, before it started to pump really hard, I already took profits, after that it's been going down and still needs to recover some more for me to have profits, BUT I have been buying them in smaller chunks from earnings here and I know that when it goes back up, I have a huge bag ready.. Not selling those.
Tel, also DCA story, but still in profits lol.

Until this whole crash I never (EVER!) kept USDT or any other stable coin, I may have sold something for them, but instantly put it into something else again. But now we know: they matter :) I see them now haha..

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Yeah, shining a whole new light on them for sure now! Before I was always like "why would I want a token that is pegged to a dollar and can never go up?". Now I see it. Not being able to go up also means it doesn't go down!

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exactly :) haha I just didn't understand that either, I thought by just being on top of the markets, I'd never see a coin dive down this fast as with the last crash, I was wrong haha

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Yikes! I’m also on this table, I feel this with especially my hive when it was ranging around 0.8$, and especially my Leo when it crossed 1$...I just try not to dwell on it, especially seeing what Leo is worth now, I could have tripled my Leo stakes had I moved pragmatically....now, due to my needs of life, I’ve had to sell bits of hive and Leo at the worst prices. We live and learn, I’m just starting to grow the stables now.

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I haven't really been paying much attention to my Hive. That is the one crypto that I typically never touch. I just keep building because I know the curation rewards will pay for themselves down the road. WAX was my big one that I should have started to sell some off and move it into stables.

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Never underestimate the power of stable coins!

Stable coins are great but they also come with their own risks. Do we know that every coin is fully backed? I don't know since most of the more commonly used ones seem to have their own issues.

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I think they are all pretty centralized. There are a couple that people seem to gravitate towards.

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If the majority says it's over is not over. The majority was still expecting Bitcoin to go higher than $20,000 back in 2017 and the market has done the exact opposite. Entering a bear market right now would mean we would get to levels close to the previous one and that didn't happen so far. I still believe the peak will occur sometime in fall-winter this year.

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I am all aboard for that. I just hope that ends up being the case!

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friend you're still learning, and growing stronger because of it. I made this mistake last bull run, as did millions of people I'm sure. Fool me twice, shame on me.

Stablecoins are your friends! as you've come to realize. Don't be shy to take profits into stables along the way. Also an exit strategy will do you well. Doesn't have to be overly complicated but how do you plan to scale out? into metals, property, stables,.. which coins are you willing to bag hold through the next crypto winter is a question worth asking yourself. Here's to learning from our missteps and growing stronger because of it.

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Thanks, that is great advice. I am going to have to start thinking of what I want to do. Ideally I would be able to take half as profit and just let the other half ride, but the profit has to be big enough to make it worth it.

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something as simple as that could be beneficial for sure. It's also possible we have an epic alt season on the horizon which will be a bit of a "get out of jail free" for many I'm sure..

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