Unmoved Bitcoin Supply Is Not A Tell Of Long-Term Commitment As Analysts Say

The absence of reason births inaction.

Similar to the tales of bitcoin marketcap growth - and literally every other cryptocurrency, self-claimed analysts and journalists love to use the unmoved supply of coins as a point of argument as to how “long-term” investors are when it comes to said asset given that it hasn't move in over a year, right?

It's both comical and wrong.

When it comes to Bitcoin, about 70% of supply hasn't moved in a year, take it back a couple of years and that number drops fast and in all honesty, if we could factor in just how much coins are lost, not just these speculations through rough estimates of 10-25%., we could see that the numbers are low on wallets that committed over the long haul.

But that's the thing about investment reports, 90% of the time, everything is a blurf, speculations over “hard facts” which admittedly, most times don't exist.

Absence Of Reason

I love writing on topics like this cause I believe it takes the bullshit out of the general sentiments and leaves things where they are supposed to be in reality.

If someone is looking at data like this as a basis for investment decisions, they ought to understand the different factors of influence that won't most times make it to the media because that's the “hunt the clicks sector” and nothing else matters there more than attention mining.

What we are looking at here is essentially how “nothing” can be a force for taking certain decisions.

Fun Fact: inaction is a form of action.

For example, typically, people buy bitcoins from centralized exchanges, and a lot tend to keep it there for a while - in fact, this is more common these days with the average investor not ready to pay those insane fees.

That said, through this period of having these coins on an exchange, trading it off for stables or something else is just a few buttons away, but why would someone not do that and instead eventually move it out of the exchange?

In some cases, it's the long term focus they have, but in other and quite common cases - even though it's not a public sentiment - it is because nothing “exciting” happened during this period of having these coins on the exchange.

I mean, do you really think I'd hold off a coin I bought at $1.26 each and see pump to over $29.27 each? That would be insane and everyone can agree that there would be a force to take action amongst many holders because something “exciting” has taken place.

But in the absence of such an event, I am basically forced to fall back on my reasons for buying the coin in the first place - you know - the “for the tech” and “the freedom” stories we tell ourselves even though the vast majority are greedy and only after profits.

For Crypto, There's Zero Force Of Reason From Two Ends

If bitcoin was suitable for commerce and lots of businesses adopted it, it would have moved around a lot. But it is not, hence people only have to buy and watch it all day.

That said, it's interesting really that the absence of reasons for keeping some bitcoin and crypto investments unmoved has quite as much force of reasons in the settlement currency as it has with the said crypto.

What does this shit even mean?

It means that USDT has posted no “exciting” moves to stir up reasons for investors to move from bitcoin or any other crypto to it. Which, in turn means the dollar hasn't and that is expected to continue to be the case because the USD is not an asset but a currency.

So unless there's some exciting event that requires money that people don't have elsewhere than in Bitcoin, or a pump obviously or a terrible event requiring funds, a chunk of the supply will always stay idle in that reported timeframe.

It's not necessarily a show of “long term commitment” in the grand scheme of things, but the absence of reasons. In fact, it's more common to see actual committed investors in lending protocols trying to borrow against their bitcoin or other crypto investments - this proves the unwillingness to sell so one would rather get in debts - the actual commitment data one could use as a basis for determining how much of said crypto supply may stay off the markets for a given time frame.

Posted Using InLeo Alpha