Have Card Prices Bottomed Yet?

Short answer? No.

I got asked this question on stream and wanted to provide a little more context into why I believe we could see more downward pressure on the card market overall.

Based on the most recent road map, I think it is safe to say that Land 1.5 will most likely come out in July. Considering the first Tuesday maintenance window falls on July 4th - a US holiday - we can probably assume it will not happen then. Which means that we have at least a month until land could come out at the very earliest.

A month is an eternity in crypto and in Splinterlands.

I mean, look at how quickly hype from Land 1.0 in April faded by the time we got Zyriel at the beginning of May. Market sentiment can get wild and go either up or down very quickly.

So now that we have the time component out of the way, let's dig into the core reasons.

First is the simple fact that we still have over 3 million Chaos Legion packs circulating around with their price falling to almost $1. The demand isn't there and while it could ramp up when land actually does go live, I would expect more people to take advantage of the reward cards as those are much cheaper and in larger supply.

Second, DEC is what many people are lacking for their land plots rather than cards as we've had years at this point to accumulate extra cards. I know several people who have been selling their cards to accumulate DEC and I expect this to continue onwards as 50k DEC per plot is not a small amount - especially for large land holders.

Finally, and this may be more unpredictable, but regulatory actions around crypto are creating a lot of FUD and I wouldn't be surprised if we see more of it in the near future. Binance and Coinbase have already been targeted, so while they may not affect SPS or Hive directly the shots have been fired and I'm sure many are on high alert. I've spoken to several people who have told me they are fine with the investment they have in the game but will not be putting any more in until some of the regulatory hurdles are cleared.

So, I say this not to be overly bearish or anything, but there is just too much pointing to a further dip in card (and other asset) values over the next couple of weeks. This isn't financial advice or a prediction, just a more cautious and conservative perspective. That being said, it could be a great opportunity to level up your deck and I have definitely been taking advantage these last few weeks.

How are you feeling overall? Do you think we've hit the bottom?

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