"The Price of Predictability"

"Wendy’s will start experimenting with surge pricing in 2025, along the lines of Uber and Lyft. Wendy’s will test “dynamic pricing” on burgers, Frosties, and other menu items, which will cost more during times of increased demand".
source

Do you see what's happening here? It's what I've been ringing the bells about for so many years on this blog. Speculation is the word of the day as the power-hungry corporations are speculating on every weakness they find in us, and considering the level of "algorithms reading machine" these individuals have, we are no longer very hard to predict.

Your phone knows what you need, want, or don't want; your smart TV does that too, and I bet the smartwatches are collecting some sort of data as well. Anyway, this post is not intended to be the type of conspiracy theory one; on the contrary, I'm talking facts here, and the facts are...

The war in Ukraine has been going on for over two years now, and whatever sanctions the world has imposed on Russia seem to not be working, as Russia is still sustaining the war. Meanwhile, it is us plebs paying for the costs of such a war... The money being sent to Ukraine in one form or another is coming from our pockets...

That's right. Which means whether you consciously or not are supporting the war in Ukraine, indirectly you are. The price of gas and diesel has gone through the roof since the war started, and there are no signs of these prices ever coming back... Is it either that or the regular depreciation of the fiat currencies.

So what can we do to position ourselves on the safe side of money? Well, Bitcoin might be one way of preserving wealth, but one coin already costs more than a one-bedroom apartment in my country. Who can afford to be a whole coiner anymore? Very few will be able to hold one Bitcoin in the future, and unfortunately, I am not one of these...

I've mentioned in my two previous @leofinance posts about a price model presented by some Swedish guy on Youtube by the name of CTO Larson, according to which the price of Bitcoin might jump as high as $300,000 by the end of the bull market. If the following correction will be no more than 75%, then we will never see BTC under $60,000 again.

That means the last chance to buy it at sub $60K is probably today by the pace the ETFs are eating the supply off the market. Someone on Hive was asking not longer than two years ago who's gonna buy Bitcoin this bull market with all the societal turmoil and financial collapse that was foreseen by quite a few analysts.

Well, the short answer to that question is: blockchain uneducated and lazy boomers through these damn ETFs. Since the ETFs got approved in the US, the nine spot ETF investing funds that are offering such products for their clients have so far amassed over 730,000 BTC in total.

These entities are buying close to 3,800 bitcoin every single day, and there's only 900 bitcoin being mined on the daily basis while the halving is less than two months away, an event which all of you know that is going to cut in half the miners' rewards, which will lead to a supply shock like never before. Does a $300,000 BTC make sense in such an equation?

Kind of, but it's not a given. Don't wrap up your bull market strategy based on any strategy, but rather study the sentiment of the market and certain indicators and be aware that time consumes everything and heaven is as finite as hell is. As every bear market comes to an end, so will the bull market. In the case of some altcoins such as Hive, the bull market hasn't even started yet.

So far Bitcoin has been under the spotlights, but rest assured that the altcoins' turn will come, one at a time...

By the end of the year, ETFs will have acquired around one million BTC if they keep on buying at this pace. That's one million of the total supply of 21 million coins, of which 1 million belongs to Satoshi, a couple of million are probably lost forever, and Microstrategy is also holding way over 100,000 BTC.

The supply shock will be huge... But the question at the end of the day is who's gonna pump our shitcoins bags? Well, I assume desperate retail that will be lured into believing that we are entering a super cycle and that the prices will never go down, and that "this is the standard now" and a bunch of wealthy billionaires who will be tired of playing safe with the ETFs and allocate some of their portfolio to degenerate alts.

Nothing will change drastically this cycle as psychology is not changing drastically among the masses either... What do you think?

Thanks for your attention,
Adrian