"Good Money Gone Bad"

How large will the total market cap for crypto be at the end of the bull cycle? Nobody knows. Some say it will be around $5 trillion (that's trillion with a T). Others suggest $10 trillion. There's even an exclusive group claiming that with ETFs out, we're going to experience an eight-year super cycle like gold had after the spot ETFs got approved for it.

Nobody knows for sure. What we do know is that once the gold ETFs were approved, the mining of the precious metal received a significant boost to match the demand coming from such financial products. However, in the case of Bitcoin, that will not happen because BTC is capped at 21 million coins.

I don't want to repeat the mistakes I made in 2021 by believing we were entering a super cycle and wouldn't have a bear market again. Thus, I am on the side of believers who still expect some sort of a bear market once the insane buying pressure we are currently seeing gets exhausted. When that will happen, I don't know.

What I do know, courtesy of tons of information accessible via Twitter, is that Bitcoin is now the 8th largest asset in the world, surpassing silver. With a $1.34 trillion market cap, BTC is now right above silver and pretty close to Alphabet (Google). It's roughly $300 billion between them in terms of market capitalization.

Gold is a $14 trillion asset class, and in my opinion, it will probably take BTC another halving cycle or more until it manages to match gold's price. Eventually, that will happen as digitization and tokenization of various mundane activities and assets gain more traction.

I believe that the best thing governments can do to push the masses towards "better money" is to demonstrate how flawed the current monetary system is. If, over the past four years, the masses have not yet come to the conclusion that governments and bankers do not act in their interest, then I don't know what will.

Mass immigration and the erosion of states and cultures? Probably. The masses are easily misled and difficult to persuade to recognize the bad for what it is. They are typically driven by extreme fear or greed. They rushed into mass vaccination like cattle to the slaughterhouse and will similarly jump into crypto out of extreme greed right at the peak.

On 11/16/22, El Capo, a famous crypto personality on Twitter, tweeted "from earth"(as he mentioned about his location at that time) that he had exited all markets and advised his followers to do the same. Whoever followed that advice has essentially sold at the bottom in Bitcoin and is likely still on the sidelines, witnessing one of the most incredible rallies the crypto market has ever experienced.

We have never witnessed anything like this. Never.

Frankfurt-based stock exchange operator Deutsche Börse Group has released a platform for the spot trading, settlement, and custody of crypto assets for institutional clients called Deutsche Börse Digital Exchange (DBDX).

Deutsche Börse Group said in a statement on Tuesday that the platform offers institutional clients trading products for cryptocurrencies through a single point of access.

"We aim to provide trusted market operations for crypto assets, ensuring transparency, security, and regulatory compliance for institutional clients in Europe. This enhances market integrity and security. It is a first step towards realizing Deutsche Börse’s ambition in the Horizon 2026 strategy to play a leading role in the digitalization of asset classes," Deutsche Börse Head of FX & Digital Assets Carlo Kölzer said.
source

Whoever has the eyes to see it knows that the current price action Bitcoin is undergoing is not anything like what we experienced in 2016 or 2020. Back then, we had cypherpunks and greedy gamblers buying Bitcoin. Now, we witness financial institutions from across the globe purchasing billions worth of crypto on a daily basis.

When will this rush towards digital gold end? I have no clue. I really don't know how the bull market will unfold. All I know is that this time is indeed different. Not in the sense that there is no ceiling to what we are currently witnessing, but rather that the patterns we have become accustomed to over a decade might be useless at this point in Bitcoin's history.

What are your thoughts?

Thanks for your attention,
Adrian