Definitley Not The Time for Monkey Business

Several weeks ago, the launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in Hong Kong sparked speculation about whether these products would outperform their American counterparts.

However, data suggests that Hong Kong only managed to amass $11 million in volume on the first trading day, which is ten times lower than their American counterparts' performance. No doubt, many traders went long on this move and got rekt by the current dump... It seems we need to see more weak hands flush before the parabolic rise can begin.

As I write this, BTC is hovering around $60,700. According to some guy on Twitter, as the US markets open, this thing will recover all losses and close the month way higher... Markets rarely heed traders' predictions, so it wouldn't surprise me to see BTC wicking down to $58,000 before nailing in a $3,000 daily green candle just to set the records straight.

Personally, I'm on @edicted's team, with or without his consent. According to one of his latest tweets, he doesn't see April as a green month; the path to recovery and beyond starts as of May 8th. That makes sense. Just look at the all-time BTC chart and see the run-up from $40,000 to $74,000. Some cooling time was probably needed before the next blast-up.

The current sentiment in crypto reminds me of the September 2023 episode when BTC hit its bottom at the $25,000 level, leaving bullish traders in disbelief. The market sentiment is pretty similar to back then when most people lost almost all belief in the bull market and were waiting for $12K.

Now they seem sure that $50,000 is next. I don't know... I don't have a crystal ball... That might happen, but if it doesn't... It wouldn't be wise to sell here just to buy more at that level. If you were "lucky enough" to enter the market back in late 2023 or late 2022, why risk your position now?! I wouldn't do that... No sir...

I believe something is about to break for the US economy soon after the elections, just to spoil Trump's victory. But before that, the masses will be fooled into believing the soft landing narrative and buy the top in equities and crypto all the way up. Personally, I'm looking to exit the market gradually as we enter the euphoria phase.

Trust me, we haven't reached that level yet, and no bull market ends in disbelief. Once every pleb starts buying crypto because it's the future and the dollar is dying, I'm going to park my profits in the good company of HBD savings. I don't believe in fiat currencies, and I would love crypto to become the standard, but that won't happen anytime soon.

True progress takes time. The same applies to fitness and anything sustainable. "Steroid pumps" are temporary...

Thanks for your attention,
Adrian