Beyond the Bubble: Unpacking the Financial Revolution and Sahrpening "The Pin"

By the time Bitcoin reaches Grandma's ears, it'll be all over. Not in the sense that Bitcoin's emergence as a new form of money or asset class will suddenly explode as the masses start hearing about it from traditional media and investing in it. No, it's in the sense that the masses are always late to the party, never quite timing their investments at the bottom.

It all unfolded so rapidly, which is unsurprising as we're either entering or already entrenched in the era of abundance through technology. Just a few years ago, renowned financial institutions were lambasting Bitcoin, branding it as rat poison. Now, we're witnessing an outstanding bull market for BTC, largely fueled by institutions rushing into the asset, termed by none other than Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, as "a flight to safety."

But safety from what? From a crumbling financial system, from tumultuous political and societal structures, and from the grip of the banking cartel. A cartel that, to some extent, poses a greater threat than almost any mafia you can conjure.

Bitcoin ETFs have amassed $4.1 billion since launch amid $3 billion in gold outflows, and the revelry is only just beginning. This trend is unsurprising when you consider that much of our daily activities now revolve around internet usage. So, wouldn't it be prudent to have some stake in internet money? I think we all know the answer to that.

"It's a new day for Bitcoin," declares the inaugural commercial for the IBIT ETF of BlackRock, and to some extent, that rings true. While many of us are well-versed in digital assets, DeFi, and WEB3, the majority are still entrenched in "the Facebook era." Having the ability to invest in Bitcoin without the burden of self-custody means that the influx of funds into ETFs will be monumental.

These entities—the companies that have had their ETFs approved and operational—are accumulating billions worth of Bitcoin daily for their reserves, and we haven't even reached the halving yet. We're less than three months away, and the supply crunch will be immense. You'll see.

"Word on Wall Street is that there's typically a minimum three-month delay for financial advisors to secure approval to invest in new products, often longer. So, we may not witness the true Bitcoin ETF boomer inflows until Q3,"
-courtesy of Jason Lopp.

Q3 signals the dawn of the summer of 2024, and my intuition tells me that's when we should expect to see BTC inching closer to $100,000. As you may have already noticed, since hitting rock bottom in November 2022, exactly one year after its 2021 peak, Bitcoin has been tirelessly forging ahead, shattering previous records and setting new ones. Altcoins are still lagging, for the most part, but rest assured, they'll take flight soon (more on this in a future post).

Investment funds offering BTC ETFs aren't traders. The current frenzy of liquidity draining due to such funds accumulating BTC isn't part of any trading strategy. No, these funds are interested in ensuring their customers hold onto these ETFs for as long as possible, incentivizing them with fees as low as 0.2%.

These entities will continue to promote Bitcoin even after the bull market subsides. This isn't a pump-and-dump scheme, but that doesn't mean it's a perpetual upward trajectory. It doesn't work like that; just as we can't maintain the same physical form or mental acuity throughout our lives, the bubble will inevitably burst at some point. But until then, it'll be epic—moon boys flaunting their holdings, everyone and their mother diving into the market with the belief that "their coin" will make them millionaires.

The ultimate signal of the bubble popping will be banks FOMOing into Bitcoin, and we're already seeing signs of that happening sooner rather than later. "In a Feb. 14 letter to SEC Chair Gary Gensler, a coalition comprising the Bank Policy Institute, the American Bankers Association, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, and the Financial Services Forum advocated their stance".

But we're not there yet. Be patient. It'll all be over when everyone starts to resemble experts in this market—same story every cycle. It's just that this one seems more aggressive and will likely be shorter-lived. That's my daily dose of hopium for you all today. Wishing you a fantastic Saturday, and until next time.

Thanks for your attention,
Adrian