AskLeo - Bull or Bear?

"$30K BTC. Now what?" This was one of my threads yesterday on @leofinance's rebranded app, and the answers that I got were not surprising at all. Someone said that the next "obvious target" would be $40k, another user is still waiting for $12K, and Chorock simply put it like: wait until November...

Well, November is something like a week away, and tbh I don't know what the history of Bitcoin is telling us about the usual price action of Bitcoin during the month of November. I sure know back in 2021 and 2017, it was bullish as heck.

We are nowhere near the ATHs when it comes to Bitcoin, and for the past year or so, as the charts are showing us, the digital gold has proven to be scoring higher highs and higher lows. Bitcoin has had its correlations to the SPX, but not like precisely following in the footsteps of the SPX.

As we can see, the SPX does not look to have much strength anymore in climbing "the wall of worry" of the bull market. According to Alessio Rastani's latest YouTube video, a technical analyst that I highly respect, it seems that the stock market has entered a bear market...

What should we blame that on? You tell me... Because I refuse to search for external catalysts for the market's behavior anymore. The fact that both the US and China are sending warship carriers near the waters of Israel might be a reason for concern, but then again, do China and the US really need a world war right now? Who's gonna fight it?

Definitely not me... But let's get back to crypto, shall we... If you remember the not so long-consumed summer times, then you probably know that during the summer season, the S&P500 had quite a rally while Bitcoin was pretty much stalling. Many were saying at that time that Bitcoin usually lags the S&P500 in terms of price performance, and now that BTC is once again moving up, there's disbelief in the rally.

Well, my opinion is that at some point Bitcoin will have to decouple from the S&P500 to prove its uniqueness as a hedge against inflation, challenging times, and so on and so forth. Wouldn't it be the perfect time to do that? I mean, we have inflation pretty much everywhere on Earth, a quite high degree of inflation; we have societal problems, wars—what else is Bitcoin waiting for?

I'm bullish on Bitcoin...

I'm bullish on Bitcoin, on some of the altcoins in the crypto space, on the technology, and also on the overall crypto market. I am not a fan of BlackRock as a company/investment fund, but when the CEO of the largest investment fund calls Bitcoin "a rush to quality" on national television, how do you treat this information?

Oh, I forgot, I'm also highly bullish on the halving, which in my opinion is still the biggest driver of high-time frame price appreciation for BTC.

Most of the Bitcoin spot ETFs have a deadline that is due in March-April next year, close to the halving time, and knowing that BlackRock has one and seeing how severely the SEC has been trashed lately, especially with the case it had against the Ripple company, I am 100% sure we will have our first Bitcoin spot ETFs approved in the US next year.

That will translate to massive retail funds coming into the market through such ETFs. Gold is "on a rush" lately too, quite close to its ATH, and that also screams to me "rush toward quality" in the middle of all the societal turmoil we have. While the SPX shows signs of weakness, Bitcoin and Gold are doing the opposite, and it is natural to be this way.

I guess during tumultuous times, you don't go out buying stocks. Just an opinion... And Bitcoin has somehow been designed to act as a hedge against tumultuous times. Isn't it about time for it to shine as such? I'd say it is...

Moreover, I believe Bitcoin will rather replicate the 2015-2017 bull market this time than the 2019-2021 one. Just a humble opinion... Which puts it on the map for insane valuations at the peak of the bullish phase. Something like $200,000 or more... What do you think, and what are you right now, a bull or a bear?

Thanks for attention,
Adrian